It does seem clear that they are writing off NM.
Colorado and New Hampshire are just gravy, as also it would be if Mittens took both NV and IA.
Although it's worth noting if you did all of the above, you could overcome the loss of Ohio. You wouldn't even need New Hampshire.
Basically a Kerry+Ohio scenario but the GOP candidate would still win because of reapportionment. If it comes down to that, wow the Donkeys will pull their hair out one strand at a time...