Originally posted by:
meadsjn
"I see a blowout coming -- 59% to 39% -- not quite a record, but devastating enough to dismantle the Dem machine up and down the tickets."
Fairly optimistic. Even Reagan's second election (1984) never made your 59% popular vote victory hurdle; only Harding (1920), Nixon (1972), Roosevelt (1936), and Johnson (1964) exceeded said mark...
Presidential election results listed by Popular vote (for elections with Popular vote) sorted in decending order:
| "Popular" Vote |
|
|
|
Winning Percentage |
|
| Victory Margin |
Year |
Party |
Winner |
Electoral Vote |
"Popular" Vote |
|
| 22.58% |
1964 |
Democrat |
Johnson(36) |
90.33% |
61.05% |
|
| 24.25% |
1936 |
Democrat |
Roosevelt(32) |
98.49% |
60.80% |
|
| 23.15% |
1972 |
Republican |
Nixon |
96.65% |
60.67% |
|
| 26.17% |
1920 |
Republican |
Harding |
76.08% |
60.32% |
|
| 18.21% |
1984 |
Republican |
Reagan |
97.58% |
58.77% |
|
| 17.41% |
1928 |
Republican |
Hoover |
83.62% |
58.21% |
|
| 17.76% |
1932 |
Democrat |
Roosevelt(32) |
88.89% |
57.41% |
|
| 15.40% |
1956 |
Republican |
Eisenhower |
86.06% |
57.37% |
|
| 18.83% |
1904 |
Republican |
Roosevelt(26) |
70.59% |
56.42% |
|
| 12.34% |
1828 |
Democrat |
Jackson |
68.20% |
55.97% |
|
| 11.80% |
1872 |
Republican |
Grant |
78.10% |
55.63% |
|
| 10.85% |
1952 |
Republican |
Eisenhower |
83.24% |
55.18% |
|
| 10.06% |
1864 |
Republican |
Lincoln |
90.60% |
55.02% |
|
| 9.96% |
1940 |
Democrat |
Roosevelt(32) |
84.56% |
54.74% |
|
| 16.81% |
1832 |
Democrat |
Jackson |
76.00% |
54.23% |
|
| 25.22% |
1924 |
Republican |
Coolidge |
71.94% |
54.04% |
|
| 7.50% |
1944 |
Democrat |
Roosevelt(32) |
81.36% |
53.39% |
|
| 7.72% |
1988 |
Republican |
Bush(41) |
79.18% |
53.37% |
|
| 6.07% |
1840 |
Whig |
Harrison(9) |
79.60% |
52.88% |
|
| 7.27% |
2008 |
Democrat |
Obama |
67.80% |
52.87% |
|
| 5.32% |
1868 |
Republican |
Grant |
72.80% |
52.66% |
|
| 6.12% |
1900 |
Republican |
McKinley |
65.32% |
51.64% |
|
| 8.53% |
1908 |
Republican |
Taft |
66.46% |
51.57% |
|
| 4.33% |
1896 |
Republican |
McKinley |
60.63% |
51.03% |
|
| 6.97% |
1852 |
Democrat |
Pierce |
85.80% |
50.84% |
|
| 14.20% |
1836 |
Democrat |
Van Buren |
57.80% |
50.83% |
|
| 9.74% |
1980 |
Republican |
Reagan |
90.89% |
50.75% |
|
| 2.46% |
2004 |
Republican |
Bush(43) |
53.20% |
50.73% |
|
| 2.06% |
1976 |
Democrat |
Carter |
55.20% |
50.08% |
|
| 0.17% |
1960 |
Democrat |
Kennedy |
56.42% |
49.72% |
|
| 4.48% |
1948 |
Democrat |
Truman |
57.06% |
49.55% |
|
| 1.46% |
1844 |
Democrat |
Polk |
61.80% |
49.54% |
|
| 3.12% |
1916 |
Democrat |
Wilson |
52.17% |
49.24% |
|
| 8.51% |
1996 |
Democrat |
Clinton |
70.45% |
49.23% |
|
| 0.25% |
1884 |
Democrat |
Cleveland(22) |
54.60% |
48.50% |
|
| 0.02% |
1880 |
Republican |
Garfield |
58.00% |
48.27% |
|
| -3.02% |
1876 |
Republican |
Hayes |
50.10% |
47.95% |
|
| -0.51% |
2000 |
Republican |
Bush(43) |
50.37% |
47.87% |
|
| -0.80% |
1888 |
Republican |
Harrison(23) |
58.10% |
47.82% |
|
| 4.79% |
1848 |
Whig |
Taylor |
56.20% |
47.28% |
|
| 3.01% |
1892 |
Democrat |
Cleveland(24) |
62.39% |
46.02% |
|
| 12.17% |
1856 |
Democrat |
Buchanan |
58.80% |
45.28% |
|
| 0.70% |
1968 |
Republican |
Nixon |
55.95% |
43.42% |
|
| 5.56% |
1992 |
Democrat |
Clinton |
68.77% |
43.01% |
|
| 14.44% |
1912 |
Democrat |
Wilson |
81.92% |
41.84% |
|
| 21.72% |
1860 |
Republican |
Lincoln |
59.40% |
39.82% |
|
| -10.43% |
1824 |
Dem-Reps |
Adams(6) |
32.20% |
30.92% |
|
dvwjr td width=99123
Fairly optimistic. You're probably right. Our demographics probably won't allow it, even if conditions justify it.
From the table you posted, Hoover came in with 58.21%, and went out with FDR taking 57.41%. It could happen. Right or wrong, the incumbent got the blame.