Obama can’t answer the 4 year are you better off question.
Polls have over samples Democrats. Romney is up a couple points. Still up for grabs but looking good.
I, personally think, that the internal polls are DIRE! If the platform at the DNC is any indication.......he’s TOAST.
I go on record here:
Obama wins no more than 10-15 states, total.
He won’t break 200 on the delegate count.
People when harassed by the polsters will report they are voting for Obama, but in the privacy of the voting booth....
Add in the polsters lean democratic heavily, and you see what I mean.
Did you know supposedly Carter was leading Reagan “up to” the last minute?
Liars, they are.
The grist mill of everyday Americans is sour on obama, be they coal miners, steelworkers, truckdrivers, waitresses, etc.
Bible Believers will be out in force.
We all have to go vote, even in the most Conservative enclaves.. Take an old neighbor to the polls to preserve America! Get your kids registered! Fight!
R&R will win with a good margin due to a number of reasons.
When a voter walks into their polling place and votes, a good campaign will know how he or she will vote within a few percentage points of error. Traditional exiting polling is dying. Real time analysis is where it’s at.
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The way the commie ‘RATS are trashing the hell out of America and Americans (according to the headlines on Google and Yahoo) in Charlotte, I’d say THEIR polls must be really, really bad. They’ve all gone over the edge.
If I had to bet right now, I’d bet on Romney. But not by a lot. I’d say a lot of Obama voters have had their eyes opened. They don’t have to prove they’re not racists, and besides Obama’s awful record makes it easier to vote for Romney. The choice of Ryan has helped as well. Romney by one-two million votes.
2012 or 2016?
If Zero somehow wins in November, there is no way on God’s Green Earth he will be followed by a Democrat.
First of all, I think exit polling is notoriously unreliable. I just don’t think you can get an accurate sampling by approaching people on the street. You can sit at a phone and call people all over the country, state, county, etc. Nobody would spend the money needed to duplicate that wide sampling in person. So, forget exit polls.
I’d guess that the maxim “undecideds break for the challenger” is true more often than not.
I never really buy the “people lie to pollsters” concept. I’m not saying it’s not true, but I question how big a phenomenon it is. For example, the article says Walker won by more than predicted, but was his margin of victory outside of the margin of error? I doubt it. Without checking I think he won the recall by about 6%. Most polls have a margin of error of at least 3%. So, if he was predicted to win by 3 and he wins by 6, that’s just the MOE. In fact, I think he could have won by 9 and still been within the margin of error, because I think it means they could be off by 3% each way, not in total. (I could be wrong about that, but what I mean is if they say a race is 50/50 it could really be 47/53 with a 3% MOE.)
Romney/Ryan need to do whatever is required to defeat Obama and we need to do whatever is required to help them.
Forget all the ideology, this economy is a mess and so is the rest of the world’s. I don’t think Obama has a single idea that will make it any better. 5 years of this cr*p is enough - it’s time to give another person a chance.
Could be. I still think this will be a nailbiter of an election, but I’d be happy to see a big Romney victory come November. Not because I love Mitt (I don’t), but because a definitive voter rejection of Obamanomics and his policies will give Romney/Ryan a mandate to act.
Maybe people are so overcome and fed-up with 24 hour news and politics they just ignore pollsters, lie to them, or only the freaks respond to pollsters (?)
NOWHERE in the article does it mention the blatant OVERSAMPLING of Dims that is going on in most polls (Rasmussen and Gallup seem to be avoiding this but they are still only sampling registered voters as opposed to likely voters).
Most prominent example of Dim over-sampling: the exit polls that said Scott Walker would win by a razor’s edge over-sampled Dims by around 4 points. Actual result: Walker win 52-48.
I ALWAYS look at the poll internals. ALL polls that give Zero a wide lead ALWAYS over-sample Dims.
And the latest trick? Some polls are now not even giving the breakdown of Dims, Repubs, and Indies. (This was the case in two recent polls that had Zero leading in NV by 2 points and leading in PA by 4 points).
I think support for Romney is FAR MORE than what the public polls are showing.
I think that the Dim operatives know the real story, which is why the campaign is so nasty. However, I don’t think anyone has told Zero what the real numbers are (too afraid of VJ).
Here’s my uneducated take on things...
You can only look at the most recent election any where to try to get a reasonable idea of how things may go, especially if conditions economically, etc. haven’t changed or have gotten worse...here goes:
Wisconsin: recall of Walker a blow out
2010 elections: referendum on Obummer
NMex: conservatishy Latina gov
VA: very conservative state govt
NC: big no on gay marriage
FL: Rubio
I wouldn’t rely on the immediate past results as much if the economy wasn’t so bad, the tax axe wasn’t hanging over our heads, Obummer care wasn’t so unpopular, gay marriage wasn’t so unpopular, etc.
Just my read on things...hope I’m right.
Here’s my uneducated take on things...
You can only look at the most recent election any where to try to get a reasonable idea of how things may go, especially if conditions economically, etc. haven’t changed or have gotten worse...here goes:
Wisconsin: recall of Walker a blow out
2010 elections: referendum on Obummer
NMex: conservatishy Latina gov
VA: very conservative state govt
NC: big no on gay marriage
FL: Rubio
I wouldn’t rely on the immediate past results as much if the economy wasn’t so bad, the tax axe wasn’t hanging over our heads, Obummer care wasn’t so unpopular, gay marriage wasn’t so unpopular, etc.
Just my read on things...hope I’m right.
Isn’t there a new CNN poll showing Obama up by 7 (52-45)?
Would seem to show thatthe GOP convention backfired, which plays right into the Dem narrative that it was a disaster.
I think the important thing is to look at what the campaigns are actually doing, because they’ll have the best and most accurate polls. Particularly striking is the convention of Black ministers on how to motivate their congregations to get out and vote for Obama. That wouldn’t be happening if there weren’t numbers showing soft support.
Here’s my reasoning for why the polls are way off. Romney draws bigger crowds than Obama and also raises more funds than Bozo. If they were as close as the polls suggest then their crowds and fund raising would also be close. They are not, therefore Romney is ahead by a good bit and will win the election.