The Bradley Effect was NOT in play at all in the last election- in fact it might have gone the opposite way
Even though I knew better than to vote for him I was hoping finally electing a black man might end the racist talk about not having equality
A cood chunk of people who did vote for him realize this was wrong too, and will not vote for him again
Here’s a few factors that come to mind:
1) We’ve elected a minority president. Been there, done that, it’s in the books and can’t help Obama any more (and his lack of performance may serve to hinder qualified minorities in the future).
2) Obama is not the hip, slick candidate he was four years ago. The college vote was heavy 4 years ago because it was cool to vote for the dashing young black guy that was going to give you stuff. Those kids have now graduated into a jobless world and are probably a little less idealistic than they once were. Note how less-than-enthused the college kids are today vs. 4 years ago.
3) The press is not worshiping Obama like they did 4 years ago. Newsweek is a good example of the press then and the press now—Messiah 4 years ago, time to go today.
4) Style is not king in this election. People are going to vote with their wallets this time around. Ideology voting is a rich man’s sport. When your bank account is low or you have no job you set ideology aside and vote for the guy that’s going to get the job done regardless of style.