"If the election were today, Obama would likely win 247 electoral votes to Romney’s 206"
ANY OTHER CONSERVATIVE WOULD WIN TODAY, TOMORROW, AND November.
And THAT is why Romney was chosen by the DNC.
What data is she seeing that would lead one to believe Iowa, Nevada and Colorado are competitive for Mittens?
The way it appears today is that either Romney or BHO will win the presidency. I will vomit no matter who wins on election day. A liberal R or a liberal D - are still liberals.
The Democrats kind of think the economy is doing o.k. Plus, they think Obama is a great campaigner. Plus, they really don’t believe that Rasmussen and Gallup show this race to be close. Therefore, they think, the race is theirs to lose.
On the other hand, we have already seen about a half dozen Democrat Senators, Governors and Congressmen dissociate themselves from Obama. And, the money isn’t coming in as projected for Obama. So, who exactly are the Democrats who think the race is Obama’s to lose?
It is an increasingly narrow circle of cult-like followers and hangers-on. Everybody else realizes this is going to be a big year for the Republicans. We will win just about all the races thought, at this time, to be close and also a good number of surprises.
Did I mention that the index of leading indicators went down this month? Has anybody in the mainstream media mentioned this?
A lot of states which Obama won comfortably in 2008 may be in play. I include the following:
Pennsylvania: This could be the state that ends Obama’s Presidency. Democrats have won it since 1992, but Bush nearly won in 2004 and even the hapless Bob Dole ran better-than-expected there in 1996.
Nevada: IMHO, McCain got caught off guard. The terrible economy hurts Obama badly now. Also, the state has a significant Mormon vote. The Reno area and suburbs of Las Vegas will decide the outcome.
Wisconsin: Watch the recall vote VERY CLOSELY. Also, George W. Bush very nearly won the state twice.
Colorado: Obama won by a larger-than-expected margin and demographic trends favor the ‘Rats. However, there are strong conservative voting blcos (especially Colorado Springs) and the economy is bad.
Minnesota: An improbable place, but still an opportunity. It nearly went for George W. Bush twice and ex-Governor Tim Pawlenty will go all out for Romney. Republicans did very, very well there in the 2010 off-year elections.
The author makes an interesting point about the Hispanic vote. Obama is far ahead natoinwide among Hispanics, but that’s bloated by overwhelming margins among Hispanics in California, Illinois, and New York. Among Hispanics in Florida and Texas, for example, his margins are less impressive.
If you look at all the presidential elections since 1888, only in one race did a candidate win the electoral vote without gaining a plurality of the popular vote (if we include fraud): that, of course would be George W. Bush vs. Al Gore in 2000, who trailed in the popular vote by a mere half a percentage point.
In the current race, although we still have more than five months until the election, the educated guess is that Romney will beat Obama by more than a couple of points nationally. So, should that occur, Jennifer Rubin need not waste her time figuring out how Romney will win the Electoral College. It will almost surely follow by the rules of probability and statistics.
After going Republican in 28 of the previous 33 Presidential Elections, Iowa has gone to the Democrat in 5 of the last 6 (and GWB's '04 victory was only 50%-49%).