We conservatives have long been familiar, going back to a time before his inauguration, of the Manchurian candidate phoniness of Barack Obama. If Gingrich is denied the nomination that leaves another phony, Mitt Romney or someone who was simply not ready for the job, Rick Santorum.
If we have an Obama-Romney race I will emphatically support Romney but I will do so in the knowledge that I have no idea whom it is I am supporting. If the race is between Obama and Santorum I fear the drive-by electorate will watch performances such as that rendered up last night by Santorum and conclude that, as bad as Obama is, Santorum is simply not up to the job.
When the persuadables among the undecideds come to actually decide how to vote they will do so based mostly on word-of-mouth and television image. They will watch the presidential debates to determine whether or not the Republican nominee is actually presidential timber. They will want to know not so much what his policies are but whether the potential replacement for the man whom they want to replace makes them feel secure that it is safe to put him in the job.
Judging Santorum by his performance last night alone and not on his courageous campaign so far, the drive-by electorate will stay with Obama.
I don't think it's necessary to debate Romney's forensic skills. It is clear that he will be able to stand on his feet and debate Obama. He can take a punch and he can land a punch and he seems to be reasonably unflappable. In other words, he will appear presidential and he will pass the drive-by test. Nor is it necessary to evaluate Newt's forensic skills. His ability to debate Obama is unquestioned. But electability is only one of my three leg test for supporting a nominee. Electability, of course, comes first. As John F. Kennedy said, "first you gotta get elected." I don't think there is much to choose from between Gingrich and Romney on the electability issue. Each has strengths and weaknesses and it is impossible to predict now how the actual dynamic of the election will play out six months hence.
The second leg of the stool his conservative bona fides. I have no question that Gingrich trumps Romney all day long on this test.
The third leg, vision, also belongs to Gingrich. And this is the reason why we conservatives really should rally behind Gingrich now. If we do not turn the Republic around now it is inevitable that we slide off the cliff. If we do not defeat Obama the fall will simply come sooner. If we defeat Obama with Romney we will have put in place a Rockefeller-Bush-Romney Republican and we will get half measures which will simply not do because this is Europe 1939 and with Chamberlain we will lose this existential struggle.
There is another part of Romney that disturbs me, it is becoming increasingly clear that the man is a ruthless prick. He is a hypocrite who sends surrogates out to do his slanders and turns a smiling face to the mothers of America and poses as the picture of innocence and succeeds in getting the women's vote while they react against Gingrich. Whatever transgressions Gingrich has made, I believe they're mostly of the intellectual sort and not so Nixonian in character as I increasingly see in Romney.
For Gingrich to prevail now either Romney or Santorum must disintegrate and it looks like Santorum is in some danger after last night's performance. If he fades markedly, Gingrich still has a chance in a one-on-one against Romney.
