Couple of problems with your analysis above. First, Rudy did nothing in Iowa, NH or SC and tried to charge out of the gates in Florida. That's not analagous at all to Newt or anyone else this cycle. Newt will do much better in those states than a non entity Rudy did. Second, Rudy seemed to quit campaigning hard for some reason. And third, I think the influence of NH and Iowa is lessening each cycle. McCain won SC because of the lazy uninformed electorate of 08 on the Republican side and the knee jerk military vote. I think SC voters will be very engaged this season. Then McCain won Florida on top of that. I think fighting the last war (comparing 08) is dangerous. I think almost nothing is the same now as 08.
I’m just suggesting that if Newt does pooryly in IA and NH, you’ll see it in SC and FL.
If he finishes say 2nd or 3rd in IA and NH, he’ll be ok. But if he finishes 4th or 5th in IA, then 4th or 5th in NH, his poll #s in SC and FL today won’t mean anything by the time they vote.
SC doesn’t vote for another 24 days, FL for another 34. That’s a very long time.