Posted on 11/28/2011 12:25:30 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
A brokered convention is the wet dream of journalists everywhere, especially inside the Beltway.
It almost never happens, and the last “brokered convention” candidate to win the White House was FDR in ‘32.
I’ll bet that it won’t happen.
If you draw up scenarios....I can’t see any of these candidates taking more than twenty states during the primaries. Rick Perry will win Texas and probably three states out in the west. Mitt will win fairly big but not in the south or along the east coast. Newt will take half the south and most of the midwest, and Cain will pick up three or four states. It might become an interesting convention.
Anyone who wants to substitute a fresh face for the current GOP crowd needs to be ready for the Obama attack upon that person, and Obama has no scruples whatsoever. Those in the running now will have the benefit of not having stepped into the limelight only yesterday, and any potentially serious political problem (like the alleged Cain sexual harassment scandals) will likely have been flushed out and well aired.
Newt’s a loose cannon and unlikely to take much of the South or anything else when push comes to shove. Half the South — that’s dreaming. He’s the hare to Cain’s tortoise and IMHO can’t sustain it.
A lot of us still wish Sarah Palin would have run. She’d be dominating the race lopsidedly at this point. But she ain’t, so we got what we got.
UPDATED w/The Video: ‘Sarah Palin Reconsider’ Ad In Iowa: Windmill Jousting, Doolittle Raid, Both?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/2812779/posts
Palin supporters announce Iowa ad buy (May commission a nat’l primary poll that includes Gov Palin)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/2812659/posts
I dont see it happening. Primaries these days tend to snowball. I understand the way it looks right now, today, it looks like its headed to a stale-mate. But people tend to jump on and off bandwagons when the day comes to cast a ballot.
By the time this thing gets to South Carolina, some of these candidates will have thrown in the towel. If they don’t, voters will jump off and then cling to whoever else closely matches their philosophy that has a chance to win.
That’s why I would not put a whole lot of faith in those SC or FL polls. Because they will change pending the outcome of the earlier races.
This writer adores moderates like Huntsman. He forgets there is something called traction with voters at play. The bias of the write is further evidenced by his declaration that Cain has no chance at nomination and then adds in parenthesis “fortunately”!
I guess he thanks his fortune Obama won’t face the most serious threat from a businessman nominee who knows his math and how to run a large business.
That’s what I was referring to in my post #1.
Iowa and NH together will record a total number of votes smaller than a dozen Florida city’s populations, in the primaries. This year SC & FL will matter more than IA and NH. Because the race is very fluid. What is different this year? The number of debates! No one needs to drop out until debates are done.
Sorry but I do not know Fred Karger, so your post went right over my head. Not your fault, it is my ignorance.
Hahahaha! No reason you should. Fred is the GOP homosexual candidate this cycle.
Im talking about momentum. If Gingrich wins Iowa and New Hampshire, he’ll have the wind at his back. At that point he’ll be tough to beat in SC. And the media will give him 99% of the attention.
That’s why I think its critical for Cain to win Iowa. Otherwise this could be a race between Romney and Gingrich.
Yes of course, big Mo can never be dismissed. I see Newt winning Iowa, Mitt winning NH and Cain winning in SC. But that is based on today’s news. Still 5 weeks to Iowa caucuses. If my guess is right no one will have big Mo past SC. Then FL becomes critically important.
The debates are being hurt by the current “low numbers” candidates. They need to weed them out. The candidates are staying in it to get face time on camera.
Perry will win Texas the way Al Gore won Tennessee.
Statewide, Perry has earned just as high a cadre of unrelenting foes as you see here.
The whole system is assbackwards and ought to be changed.
Ya picks yer candidate AFTER YOU NAIL DOWN A PARTY PLATFORM!!
THEN, and only then, you find a candidate to fit.
Howsabout:
Illegal alien$?
Muzzies/Sharia??
Open borders?
Healthcare?
$pending?
THEN pick the candidate.
I quit reading when this writer said that Huntsman would be in it at the convention
The rules of the Republican Party almost guarantee a nominee prior to the convention. After the first several states, the remaining states are winner-take-all. Therefore, the first several states are simply to winnow the field.
BTW if, in spite of what I said, it is a brokered convention, I think there’ll be an effort to get David Petraus to accept the nomination. He’s the only potential savior for the party.
You are so correct. These debates are like free money to anyone who chooses to compete. All they have to do is hang on until the next debate and hope someone ahead of them makes a big gaffe. In other cycles, some of these folks would be gone.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.