Palin will have more appeal to moderates than you might imagine. She sure did in Alaska. In governing, she focuses on constitutional issues, not social issues.
I agree completely that she will have moderate support. But the ‘moderates’ who would vote Romney lean Dem and would do so because he’s practically a Dem in his policies. Those who would vote Palin are not. Romney avoided the Constitution often while governing. That’s why his supporters like him. Again, the polar opposite of Palin.