The opinions of those “insiders” who say she isn't running since she hasn't built a team yet might just be uninformed as to what she's doing. The recent first leg of her One Nation Tour certainly caught them by surprise.
I would simply take her at her word. Her people are making preparations for a run, so should she decide to declare, she will have a mechanism in place.
My guess (for what it's worth), if another strong Conservative candidate who meets certain prerequisites does declare, then I would lean towards the Governor declining a run. As of now, I don't see anyone else on the horizon.
The public will determine if Palin runs or not.
I would repeat what someone observed the last couple weeks, that the normal rules do not apply to Palin.