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Politics

Monday, August 7, 2006
OC Metro

OC Metro by Steve Eddy
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When it comes to high-level Republican politics in an election year, it’s time to meet the new boss not quite the same as the old boss.

Back in 1999, after Democrat Gray Davis trounced hard-core conservative Dan Lungren in the 1998 governor’s race, winning 59% of the popular vote to Lungren’s 39%, it became apparent to a number of wealthy Orange County Republicans that their beloved party wasn’t resonating anymore. The age-old conservative power structure led by county GOP chairman Tom Fuentes was losing touch with a county and state whose demographics were reflecting a more moderate political outlook.

Instead of merely bemoaning the situation, these successful businessmen got together and created an organization to channel the change in their fathoms-deep pockets. Fast-forward to 2006, and it’s clear that members of that group, the New Majority, are now among the Powers That Be. And, for a bunch of former political neophytes, the results haven’t exactly been shabby: The group can (and does) boast of donations of more than $30 million to hand-selected GOP candidates and causes, here and around the country, and the registration of 30,000 new Republicans in Orange County.

Along the way, individuals within the group who used to sit on the sidelines have become major players.

“The New Majority’s biggest accomplishment is that they brought a lot of people to the political table that weren’t there before,” says Michael Capaldi, chairman emeritus of the Lincoln Club, a Republican group that is often seen as a rival to the New Majority but which Capaldi says is an ally. “The New Majority grew out of a network of donors for the arts,” Capaldi says. “Bringing that new interest, enthusiasm and money to the Republican side is a positive for the party. You may not agree with everything they stand for, but, as a Republican, you have to welcome them.”

An example of the conversion from fine arts philanthropists to political moneyman? There’s none better than Paul Folino, head of giant data-storage company Emulex and chairman of New Majority Orange County. Folino, who is one of the county’s most noted and generous philanthropists, used to leave politics to others.

“I was registered as an independent,” Folino says. “I hadn’t been involved in the political process. I always just looked at the best available ‘athlete.’ And that person could come from either party.” About six years ago, as the finishing touches were being put on the New Majority’s local apparatus, Folino was drawn into discussions with two of the group’s lynchpins, venture capitalist Tom Tucker and Apria Healthcare head Larry Higby. These were men he knew from nonprofit boards at South Coast Repertory and elsewhere.

“Tom and Larry approached me about this concept of promoting a fiscally responsible philosophy toward government, but at the same time being more inclusive,” Folino recalls.

In other words, no right wing “litmus test” for candidates. “Inclusive,” Folino says, “really means that we don’t spend a lot of time discussing what we call the social issues abortion, gun control, those kinds of things. In other words, as long as a candidate was pro-business and anti-tax, his or her views on other matters would take a back seat.

“I could really relate to that, and I got on the bandwagon. The goal was to professionalize the Republican Party, make it more like a business.”

Folino told his pals he would help out financially, but that he’d rather stay in the background. “That lasted about 27 seconds,” he says with a laugh. He almost immediately found himself being interviewed by Tom Brokaw on NBC, and he became the “face” of the New Majority.

All it takes to become a member of the club is a cool $10,000 a year in dues, but that’s only the beginning of the group’s financial base, according to Folino. “The real power is that many of our members are going beyond that, giving more money.”

The club’s financial clout is aimed at “getting people elected who understand economics,” says Tom McKernan, president of the Automobile Club of Southern California. McKernan, chairman of the New Majority’s Political Affairs Committee and vice chairman of the Orange County board, says there is great concern about the economy being weakened over time, “and you end up with fewer jobs fewer middle-class-type jobs.”

McKernan says the group “is sticking to that goal. People all seem to work together. There’s not a lot of infighting. Everyone is focused on the mission and very dedicated to it. All of them have other lives and other things. This isn’t their main focus. But we’ve all come to it with a passion to get a result.”

What results?
Others question whether the New Majority has stuck to it’s original intent and say the results haven’t been all that impressive. Sure, they have raised a lot of money, but what victories have they engineered?

The group strongly supported Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in the 2004 recall election, and some point to his triumph as the club’s biggest success. But most political analysts say that Schwarzenegger likely would have won without the New Majority’s cash infusions.

“It wasn’t a close race,” says Mark Petracca, professor of political science at UC Irvine. “He didn’t need their money. The question you have to ask yourself is, ‘In what contested race have they made difference?’ When and where have they tipped the balance in an election?”

“I’m not aware of a case where they weighed in with an independent expenditure and tilted the scales in the direction of a win,” says Capaldi. “But there may be cases I’m not aware of.”

Orange County Republican elder statesman Dale Dykema is a member of both the Lincoln Club and the New Majority. He says the New Majority has a made a difference in several contested races, pointing to the 2002 victories of Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia in the 80th District in the Inland Empire and Assemblywoman Shirley Horton in the 78th District in San Diego, candidates the club backed.

But the question remains whether the group has been true to its initial urge toward moderation.

“When the New Majority first came along back in 1999-2000, I certainly thought it was a move in the right direction,” says Frank Barbaro, chairman of the Orange County Democratic Party. “I was very impressed with the people involved and hoped they would move the Republicans more to the center and make them more responsive to the needs of the people in Orange County.

“Initially, I saw some better candidates and other good things happening. But more recently, I haven’t seen it so much. It seems to me like we’re getting a melding of the new majority with the old majority, if you will. They haven’t maintained the forward-looking attitude they started with. I mean, where are they on the issue of abortion? Where are they on the issues of immigration? Where are they on the issues of the environment? There doesn’t seem to be much now that distinguishes them from the knee-jerk right-wingers they started out to replace.”

The New Majority maintains strong support for Gov. Schwarzenegger, a social moderate, but withheld support from moderate Tom Harman in his recent state senate contest. When Harman ran for assembly in 2000, New Majority members successfully backed him against the establishment candidate. This time around, however, when he was locked close race with Diane Harkey in Orange County’s 35th state senate district, the New Majority was missing in action. Harman won without their support.

Capaldi blames the split between Harman and the New Majority more on Harman than on any failure of moderate principles at the club. “They had to be disappointed with his performance in office after they supported him for assembly,” Capaldi says. “He let a lot of fiscal conservatives down, with support for regulations, for increased taxes and fees, that moderate Republicans wouldn’t have touched. I think the New Majority fell out of love with him for good reasons.”

Academic opinion
Jack Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and a longtime observer of the Southern California

political scene, believes that, on balance, the New Majority has been a moderating influence on Orange County Republican politics.

“One sign is the degree of support for the governor in the county,” Pitney says, “a governor whose philosophy is very much in line with that of the New Majority.”

Petracca agrees: “There are other factors involved in the shift in Republican attitudes here, but yes, the New Majority has been a moderating influence. They haven’t so much pushed a moderate social agenda as they have just stopped talking about social issues,” making the right-wing social agenda less of an issue.

“It’s kind of hard to push any kind of social agenda on a local level,” says Pitney. “Most of those decisions take place in Sacramento or Washington. But the New Majority has had influence on those politicians who realize that there are a lot of checks out there to be written by people who favor a moderate social agenda.

“It’s not that you’re seeing huge numbers of Orange County Republican officeholders showing up at gay-rights rallies that doesn’t happen.” But, at the same time, “You don’t have Dornan or Dannemeyer anymore. A lot of local politicians still have conservative views, but they don’t express them in the same way.”

Another analyst, Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of the California Target Book, which handicaps various legislative races, says that in the beginning, the New Majority “was sort of the moderate Lincoln Club. They wanted to confront what they perceived to be too much dominance by rigid conservatives, and were willing to support candidates who might not toe the conservative line on certain issues.” But, over time, he says, the group became less confrontational.

“It appears that they’re becoming mainstream (Republican),” Hoffenblum says. “Attempting to go from confronting the hard core to see if there is some way everyone can work together.” That can mean endorsing a fervid conservative such as Tom McClintock, who the group supports in his race for lieutenant governor.

“In politics, particularly on Republican side, there really aren’t enough candidates out there who are strong for us to be too selective,” says Capaldi. “We don’t have enough good candidates to really have a litmus test, one way or the other.

“When you have a good moderate Republican who is in a race for his life, you are going to support him. When you have a conservative who is working to survive in her election, you are going to support her. Any good Republican would rather see a Republican of just about any description holding office than a Democrat.

“That is the Lincoln Club’s philosophy, and I think over the years, the New Majority has joined us in that philosophy. I think they are looking a lot less now for a sort of moderate litmus

test. They are looking more toward building momentum for Republicans in general.

Tucker, statewide New Majority chairman and the original Orange County chairman, agrees that outlooks have changed.

“When we began, we are singularly focused as agents of change almost like rebels,” Tucker says of the days when he and Larry Higby led an unsuccessful frontal assault on the county’s Republican old guard. “I think we have matured and become more pragmatic as it relates to politics. Most of us were very green in the political arena, and there’s a pretty steep learning curve.”

One thing they learned, Tucker says, “is that if all you do is work with people who think like you do, you’ll never build a majority. Today, it’s important to build coalitions with people you can agree with on specific issues. But you don’t have to agree with them on every issue.”

As an example, he mentions OC Republican Party Chairman Scott Baugh. “I recruited him to take a leadership position in the Orange County party,” Tucker says. “He is a social conservative. I am socially moderate. But he’s a great business guy, and we now have a strong personal and political relationship. In my first meetings with him early on, it certainly was not at that level. Over time, our attitudes changed and our thought processes matured.”

Not an ATM machine
That maturity has blossomed into the New Majority becoming the largest donor to the Orange County Republican Party.

But, Tucker cautions, “We’re not an ATM machine. We have high expectations, and Scott has met or achieved every one” of them in the areas of voter registration and get-out-the-vote efforts. In the end, of course, much of modern politics comes down to money, as it’s impossible to get elected without it.

“The New Majority’s purpose isn’t to pass resolutions on a Saturday afternoon,” Hoffenblum says. “Their purpose is to raise large dollars.”

That they’ve done and they’re not finished. Far from it. An initial Orange County chapter (there are about 140 members now) spawned one in Los Angeles County, and the group is now setting its sights on the Inland Empire, San Diego County and, a bit further down the road, the Bay Area.

“In the next two or three years, we could find ourselves (in all the chapters) with 400 to 500 members,” Folino says. “Imagine what we could do with 500 members.”

With Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides viewed as a potential calamity from a business standpoint, a prime focus of the group is getting Gov. Schwarzenegger re-elected. The group’s website (thenewmajority.com) features an array of photos of various New Majority figures posing with a beaming Schwarzenegger.

Other photo galleries show group members with a wide range of national Republican figures, some moderate and some not so moderate, who have come to Orange County to court the club’s money. They include Governors Mitt Romney and George Pataki, Sen. John McCain, Sen. George Allen, Karl Rove and Dan Quayle.

Despite their hefty contributions and hobnobbing with national figures, some analysts say the group’s clout remains local at present.

“They are not a major player in state or national politics,” says Petracca.

In Orange County, however, they are a force to be reckoned with. OCM