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Daily Kos Founder: Tough math in 2012
The Hill ^ | November 16, 2010 | Markos Moulitsas, King of the Nut-roots

Posted on 11/16/2010 5:08:13 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

Denied the Senate majority by Sarah Palin and Sen. Jim DeMint’s (R-S.C.), incompetent Tea Party candidates in places like Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware and Nevada, the GOP will get a second crack at the prize in 2012.

With the caveat that much can and will change in two years, Republicans today are looking at a favorable map. Only 10 Republicans face reelection, compared to 21 Democrats and two independents caucusing with them.

One of those independents, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, has seen his last Senate term. Recent numbers from Public Policy Polling (PPP) show him to be easily the most unpopular senator in the country. The only question is whether he retires or goes down in defeat at the ballot box.

The most popular senator in the country, according to PPP, is Maine’s Olympia Snowe (R). Ironically, she is the second most endangered. Maine Republicans have taken a dramatic rightward turn, and there’s no chance she’ll survive a Republican primary. An independent or even Democratic bid would suit her best, as she remains most popular in her state among that set. So far, she is staying put.

Few other Republicans could be considered endangered. Aside from Snowe, there’s Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who saw his state revert to its solidly Democratic ways this November. He either becomes President Obama’s favorite Republican — and faces a Tea Party-fueled primary — or he sticks with DeMint and becomes a one-third-term senator. John Ensign of Nevada won’t be around in 2013. He’ll likely be taken out in a primary, but even if he survives, the seat will be fiercely contested. Arizona’s Jon Kyl could face difficulties if his state’s Latino community engages.

Utah’s Orrin Hatch and Indiana’s Richard Lugar will likely face early retirement courtesy of the Tea Party, but those seats will remain in GOP hands.

On the other side, we can slot Nebraska’s Ben Nelson’s seat into the GOP column. No way he survives. The other Nelson — Bill in Florida — will be playing defense in a state that trended heavily against Democrats this November.

Debbie Stabenow in Michigan has a tough 38-50 approve/disapprove rating, according to recent PPP polling. She’ll be a tough hold, as will Missouri freshman Claire McCaskill, with an even rougher 40-53 approval rating. Three other freshmen Dems — Montana’s Jon Tester, Ohio’s Sherrod Brown and Virginia’s Jim Webb — will be prime targets. Republicans dominated all five states this year.

Will Kent Conrad run again in North Dakota? Even if he does, survival will be tough. West Virginia’s Joe Manchin won his state’s special election this year against a terrible candidate. How will he fare in a presidential year against top-notch competition? He won’t get a pass. Herb Kohl just saw his colleague Russ Feingold get the boot in Wisconsin, and he’ll face similarly tough opposition. And I’m not resting easy if I’m Bob Casey in Pennsylvania.

Jeff Bingaman in New Mexico, Dianne Feinstein in California and Maria Cantwell in Washington state all sport solid approval numbers, but much can change.

At the end of the day, Democrats have a realistic shot at Massachusetts, Nevada and Maine, if Snowe is primaried into oblivion. They might have an outside shot in Arizona. Beyond that? Bleak.

Republicans will likely pick up Nebraska, and have top-tier pickup opportunities in Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin and maybe even Pennsylvania.

For the Democrats, the tough math is the price they’ll pay for their sweeping (and oftentimes narrow) wins in 2006.

******

Moulitsas is the founder of Daily Kos and author of American Taliban: How War, Sex, Sin and Power Bind Jihadists and the Radical Right.


TOPICS: Parties; Polls; U.S. Congress; U.S. Senate
KEYWORDS: 2012; democrats; palin; teaparty
Even his analysis is far too rosy, and you notice he didn't say a peep about the race for the White House...
1 posted on 11/16/2010 5:08:18 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The fact that we won any Senate seats this go round is a miracle. ‘12 was always the winner of a year with the number of weak candidates the Rats have to cover all at once.

If thing continue to degenerate in the country and if the GOP can stick to principles, they will stomp again including the WH. Obummer has gone out on such a weak limb that he will not be able to back track from all these stupid promises.


2 posted on 11/16/2010 5:19:01 PM PST by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Denied the Senate majority by Sarah Palin and Sen. Jim DeMint’s (R-S.C.), incompetent Tea Party candidates in places like Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware and Nevada, the GOP will get a second crack at the prize in 2012.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

SNARK ALERT!!! SNARK ALERT!!!


3 posted on 11/16/2010 5:20:39 PM PST by ak267
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Delaware is the only one of the four states he lists that Palin backed a primary candidate in and the GOP Establishment in CT picked Linda McMahon for her big bucks. Are creepy guys like this that uninformed or that willful and blatant at lying?


4 posted on 11/16/2010 5:20:48 PM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: ak267

Conneticut: Deep blue....narrow victory for Dems.

Delaware: Deep blue...even Castle would of lost and GOP bigweigs backstabbed O’Donnell.

Nevada: Reid had the ground game, the thug vote and the dead vote (and a boat load of money)...nuff said.

Colorado: Blue state. Divided conservative vote.


5 posted on 11/16/2010 5:25:21 PM PST by ak267
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Tough math, Kos....? How about tough lessons in basic government...? Whether a particular Senator is popular in across the country is irrelvant. Only that state’s residents have a say.


6 posted on 11/16/2010 5:36:11 PM PST by edpc (It's Kräusened)
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To: Lazlo in PA


And this will never happen again.
7 posted on 11/16/2010 5:42:56 PM PST by jimbo123
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It is a good thing we didn’t get a Senate majority and got rid of some RINO candidates instead during the primaries. Control of both the House and Senate would have given Barry too easy an excuse.


8 posted on 11/16/2010 6:48:58 PM PST by AdaGray
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
If I were a demonRAT Senator in one of these states, and read the KOS report, I just come over to a house of ill repute, get drunk, and lay down... smoke an opium pipe...drift off... and then...USS ALASKA would drop one right on their little tight ass.

Since I've been too obtuse, I must apologize for my foul language.

My screen name is my son's first "BOAT" and I post with pride, but tonight, I've gone overboard, and I apologize... for the past several postings which may have been over the line.

9 posted on 11/17/2010 2:19:30 PM PST by USS Alaska
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