Posted on 11/10/2010 5:18:48 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Tea Party, Shmea Party. Post-election surveys suggest that Mitt Romney still leads as the favored Republican presidential candidate for 2012.
His lead looks especially big in New Hampshire: Almost 30 points.
Does this big lead translate into a smooth ride to the nomination?
That depends on whether Romney's campaign follows the path of George W. Bush's in 2000 — or Hillary Clinton's in 2008.
Here's the happy scenario for Romney: Like Bush in 2000, Romney is the Republican heir apparent in 2012. Like Bush, Romney has the backing of the party's biggest donors. Like Bush, Romney has national campaign experience. Like Bush, Romney faces opponents who can be dismissed as either obscure (Pawlenty, Daniels) or extreme (Palin, Gingrich.)
Finally, like Bush, Romney faces one early bump on the way to the nomination (Romney polls badly in Iowa, just as Bush did in New Hampshire) — but otherwise seems the most popular candidate in most of the early voting states.
So: Smooth sailing?
Maybe not. Everything that can be said of Romney and Bush could have been said of Hillary Clinton. Heir apparent? Check. Support of biggest donors? Check. National-campaign experience? Check. Opponents obscure (Barack Obama) or extreme (John Edwards)? Few visible roadblocks ahead?
Check, check, and check.
Even if Hillary Clinton had every advantage, her campaign was ultimately sunk by two holes beneath the water line: Her vote for the Iraq war and the perception of her husband's administration as too conservative on economic issues.
These two issues damaged Clinton with the most intense party activists — and it was these activists who dominated the caucus states that gave Barack Obama his margin of victory.
Now look again at Romney. The sort of person who writes a big check to the GOP every cycle may see in Romney a competent CEO for the United States. But to the people who will spend hours in an Iowa caucus room, Romney also has two holes below his water line: TARP and healthcare reform.
Hillary Clinton hesitated for months, then belatedly repudiated her Iraq vote in hope of mollifying party activists. Romney has worked harder and faster to placate his internal critics by drawing distinctions between his health reform in Massachusetts and the plan enacted in Washington — and vehemently opposing the latter. At most, we can say the verdict of the Republican base is pending.
How will we know if Romney is Bush or Clinton?
If Romney pulls far ahead in his fundraising — if the more conservative Republicans continue to divide between Palin, Gingrich and others — and if he locks up endorsements early, then 2000 is repeating itself and he's the next Bush.
But if those things do not happen, then Romney faces a grim outlook.
The people who support him are the same people who regard Sarah Palin as utterly unacceptable, both as a candidate and as a president. If Romney does not win early, fear of Palin will send them hunting fast for another alternative. There's a long list available of such alternatives and there's one name that does not get mentioned nearly often enough: Jeb Bush.
Yes, Bush says he's not running.
But if it's January 2012 — and if Romney has finished fourth in Iowa and is plunging in national polls, Republican governors, members of Congress and donors will be asking the question: Who can put together a national organization — and raise tens of millions of dollars — in six weeks flat? And that's a question that points back to the mightiest fund-raising dynasty in the Grand Old Party.
Have you been drinking tonight?
Canada to Free Republic: “We don’t want him.”
In all seriousness Mitt Romney would completely destroy any chance to roll back government in the United States. Many of you overlook this because you want to win. Mitt basically removes health care as an issue in the general election because of Romneycare. He may not even be able to beat a moderated (if Obama triangulates) Obama. If Obama moves to the middle he and Mitt become less distinguishable and it becomes a popularity/likability contest. Mitt cannot win.
The key to victory for Republicans in 2012 is to highlight sharp differences between their vision and the left’s vision. Trust me, we’ve elected Progressive Conservatives forever up here and we have a monstrosity of a government. Socialized medicine complete with waiting lists and shortages, run away taxes, senators appointed for life etc etc......do you know the RCMP can search your home without a warrant up here?
No. But why put the father of the demon in the demon’s place? Let’s choose someone whose got no demon in him or her and send the demon’s whole family packing.
And I don’t want to hear anything about where you going to go if a RINO like Romney becomes the nominee. If the GOP is stupid enough to make that happen, they deserve the loss that is coming to them. By their mouths and Mitt’s minions, I can tell they don’t care whether Obama gets in there again or not. They are doing all they can to trash conservative and downgrade what conservatives have done this past election because they are afraid of losing their power. If holding on their power means more to them than saving this country, I don’t want anything to do with the traitorous lot of them.
The Democrats are stuck with Obama. If they dump him for a white nominee, blacks will not to go to the polls.
Screw this! Romney is on my persona non grata list!
my point was not about whether or not you like Bloomberg — I was objecting to the smear of anyone who objects to Romney
Actually, no, he can't.
Because his background is in finance, and he's chickensh*t.
“The Democrats are stuck with Obama. If they dump him for a white nominee, blacks will not to go to the polls.”
They lose the blacks if Hillary runs, the GOP loses conservatives if Romney or a similar clone runs, and then it is a horse race - with one or two independents.
I did not believe Hillary would run until last week when she did the orange pantsuit display, but with BO’s blood and cerdibility in the water after the elections, and the GOP giving every sign that they can that they are returning to business as usual, she may figure her opponent is a Gingromnuck suit. She WOULD have a real chance against an establishment silhouette.
Romney has no chance to win the GOP nomination for 2012. Its going to be a tea party candidate.
I could not agree more. The Vichy GOP’s resistance and aggression against conservatives in the past few days shows more fight than anything they offered against the left in the past several years.
One way or another, the Vichy Republicans are finished, whether they are pushed out, or are left behind in a rump party with all chiefs and no Indians.
The newly-elected Republican state legislative bodies had better change the primary rules NOW, so that only registered Republicans can vote. No more of these loosey-goosey, let anyone vote on Primary Day - that's one of the things that got us Juan McInsane as the '08 candidate.
“Romney has no chance to win the GOP nomination for 2012. Its going to be a tea party candidate.”
Georgia Girl 2, I share your hopes but not your confidence. I can see the GOP nomeklatura diluting the primary with multiple faux conservatives, or providing the cash to multiple weak or niche conservatives to run, while promoting only one or two “prudent choice” empty suits.
Vote dilution of conservatives, early blue state and open primaries, and they will have seized the initiative, perhaps irrecoverably. Similar to the disaster in ‘08 but with more engineering to divide and weaken conservatives. The Vichy Republicans would feel very smug and clever with this, and not realize that this time no one would be coming back to help them off the ground again in ‘13.
Their other course is to run a mixed candidate, who makes conservative sounds and holds some conservative views, but at core is a party first kind of guy. They are massaging several right now. They will probably be fiscally conservative, make some token noises about social conservative cause, but remain firm on open borders, globalism and maintaining the core of a large federal bureaucracy.
Is there a way to filter (or ignore) all articles written by David Frum?
Maybe Romney can win two states in the primary instead of one. But, that would be a stretch....Romney Care...Romney Care.....
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