GOP 'Worried Sick' About Palin

Top political strategists said Monday that Sarah Palin isn't just a potential presidential candidate -- she's almost surely going to run in 2012.

"You can't count her out," said Mark McKinnon, former adviser to President George W. Bush. "In fact, there are a lot of reasons to count her in. ... Established Republicans are worried sick about her."

But Karen Finney, a former member of the Clinton administratiion who's now a political consultant: "They owe her."

The comments came during the Securities Industry and Financial Markets annual conference in New York City today. McKinnon, Finney and another Democratic strategist, Cornell Belcher, were asked to give their views on what recent election results mean for Wall Street -- but spent much of the time talking about the next presidential race in 2012.

McKinnon, who's now vice chairman of Public Strategies, said Texas Gov. Rick Perry is one of the few Republicans who could give Palin a run for her money. Perry recently won his third term by a wide margin. Despite the tooth-and-nails battles other candidates faced, Perry has been on a tour promoting a book titled "Fed Up! Our Fight to Save America From Washington."

"The Tea Party loves him; the base loves him," said McKinnon. "He's got nothing else to do -- he just came out with a book!"

Still, McKinnon noted that Palin would be the sole woman in a group of eight to 10 male candidates -- giving her an edge just by nature of her gender. He believes she'd be able to win two or three of the initial round of primaries "easily," which is traditionally a straight path to the nomination.

In analyzing the past two years of Obama, the panelists generally agreed that he's done a poor job of finding common bipartisan ground, as voters expected him to do. Congress, by their assessment, performed even worse in aligning their agenda with voters' biggest concerns. "If you turned on your television during the health care debate, it looked like a kindergarten playground," said Finney. "It looked ridiculous."

McKinnon said he worries Republicans will similarly waste their time "getting into the weeds" on procedural mumbo jumbo to undo some of the sweeping legislation. Voters may oust them similarly in the next election if there's no sign that legislators are getting their message.

In the next election, said Finney, "I'm inclined to believe we'll get another round of 'throw the bums out.' "

We need a 1984 election like reagan had, not a 1964 election like Goldwater.

Goldwater was a stiff and severe-looking man. He was a serious man with much gravitas. So much gravitas that they inferred he would blow up the world. Conservatives liked him for his ideas, but being hidden away in Congress he had to build his name identification from nearly scratch. He was always concerned about the Soviet threat and thought that our country’s future was in jeopardy. His personality was hidden by his public persona. No one really hated Goldwater (except maybe Nelson Rockefeller), but he had no charisma about him to create a cult of personality. He had no chance of winning in 1964, only a year after Kennedy’s assassination just as Mondale had little chance after the attempt on Reagan’s life in 1981.

Reagan was a man of the popular culture who could be serious, but was often making serious points through humor. His personality shined through all attempts at disguise and everyone knew he was genuine. Reagan was always happy and looking toward a positive future. People either loved him or hated him, either emotion being illogical and telling more about the person than about Reagan. Everyone knew who he was from movies and television. He was accused of being just a dumb actor and his intelligence was ridiculed. His education at Eureka College was said to be inferior. Although pundits gave him almost no chance of winning, voters decided they preferred a man who had played opposite a chimpanzee to the incompetent Jimmy Carter.

Sarah Palin was thrust on the popular culture when she was nominated for VP. She is the only candidate who has been involved as a nominee in a national campaign and has 100% name recognition. She has charisma that exceeds that of Reagan. She is always happy and positive about the future. She often uses humor to poke fun at opponents. Similarly, people either love or hate her. People who meet her are impressed with how genuine she is. Opponents ridicule her intelligence and her state university education and give her almost no chance of winning. Now a best selling author, TV commentator and public speaker she has given credibility to a national tea party movement when few other politicians would, a movement that has caused upheaval in the Republican Party and defeat for the Democrats. How she will do versus Obama is still up in the air. After all, she has never played opposite a chimpanzee.

I read the context. I don’t see how it changes my interpretation of what was said. In any event, I don’t begrudge her changing her mind if indeed she does. A big decision like that may involve a lot of going back and forth—nothing wrong with that. I was merely responding to the person who said Bobby Jindal indicated he won’t run for president and implied that if he now changes his mind he’s not a “man of his word.” I was merely illustrating Palin also made a statement about the conditions under which she’d run and if she choses to not adhere to that, would that person then consider her not a person of her word.

I read the context. I don’t see how it changes my interpretation of what was said.

Roll tape:

"It's going to entail a discussion with my family (and) a real close look at the lay of the land, to consider whether there are those with that common sense, conservative, pro-Constitution passion. If there's nobody else to do it, then of course I would believe that we should do this."

She will do "it", run, if there is "nobody else" who is a "common sense", "pro-Constitution" "conservative".

That's the full context.

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