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North Carolina.
Goes from 7 Democrats to either 4 or 5, depending on if Shuler can be beaten.
Each R district is 55+ McCain %.
Nevada - this is an easy one. Most of the growth has been in suburban Las Vegas (the current 3rd). However Clark County will likely not be big enough to house a 3rd seat by itself. So it looks to me there like:
1 - Las Vegas & vicinity
2 - Carson City & vicinity (a large vicinity to be sure)
3 - suburban Las Vegas
4 - exurban Las Vegas (including, and dominated by, a big chunk of Clark County).
The (Democrat) legislature will have a great deal of choice on how to divvy up the rural counties of Nevada (among what I have called the 2nd and 4th) but the new district will be dominated by Clark County. There will be a Republican governor.
The current 3rd was barely won by a Republican. So the best Republicans can hope for is 1 safe Dem seat, 2 safe R seats, and a tossup. The worst (and more likely) scenario is 2 safe Dem seats and 2 safe R seats.
