The Dallas-area seat looks Republican - only Dallas County voted for White over Perry, and that is the county with the lowest growth.
The Houston-area seat: Harris County did vote for White by a small margin (he was mayor of Houston, no?), the other counties voted Republican. However after you take out the 9th, 18th and the 29th (assuming high correlation between Gov-vote and U.S. Rep.-vote, a safe assumption), then Perry must have won the remainder of Harris County. The three Democrat districts do not appear to be where the growth was....indeed unless a lot of Democrat voters in the 29th stayed home, Gene Green could be in trouble next time out.
The 2nd and 7th were uncontested races - hard to check vote totals there.
Austin/San Antonio: White did carry Bexar and Travis, with Perry carrying Williamson and the two connector counties.
However when you subtract out the 20th district then Perry won the remainder. Again that appears to be where the growth is. In the 25th, Doggett lost every county except Travis.
So yes, I like the GOP’s chances for all 3 seats.
There has to be some bad news too...Dems control the process in IL, although Cook County has lost nearly a full seat. However there is enough of a core to protect all 7 Democrat seats in Chicagoland. The 8th could be eliminated, and the 10th may get some new Democrats.
I don’t think this is going to be easily doable. Obama’s justice department will ask for 1 VRA majority hispanic district.
For what it’s worth when it comes to redistricting don’t forget there are nine states that must get approval from the Feds for their CDs because of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Some other states have a portion of the state that must be approved [CA and NY] come to mind.