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To: x; griswold3; afraidfortherepublic; MSF BU; centurion316; zendari; The Political genius

NE is done — not too many changes from the current map.


158 posted on 06/05/2011 10:48:59 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: BfloGuy

The 6th has to add 66K constituents, including 22K blacks to stay a majority black seat. There is a large cluster around Uniondale in the current 4th however if they are reassigned, McCarthy (54% in ‘10) becomes a lot easier to beat.

The adjoining 5th (Ackerman) and 9th (Weiner) are only 5% black.

The 10th (62% black) does not adjoin but the 9th is narrow enough that the 6th could take a small piece from the 9th plus a small piece from the 10th and remain majority black.

But then Weiner’s district is split in two. The 10th and 11th are black enough that they can donate 22k blacks to the 6th and still be majority black but they do have to add 125K constituents (maybe 165-175K if they donate to the 6th).

The 12th (Velazquez won unopposed in ‘10 but the seat is only 45% hispanic) will probably not grow in this direction.

So once the 13th adds 31K more from Brooklyn, there will be between 325K and 500K Brooklynites, mostly white, left over.
The 175K difference is whether the 10th and 11th grow this direction or not.

718K forms a seat so this part of Brooklyn will take in 218-393K constituents from Manhattan, just enough for the home of Jerrold Nadler.

Meanwhile, the 1st through 4th districts have a 176K deficiency. That will take up all of the Nassau County portion of the 5th and then some. Ackerman himself is short another 48K, so Ackerman takes up about 1/2 of the Queens portion of the 9th.

Crowley’s 7th district loses some of the Bronx and gains the remaining portion of the 9th.

Other scenarios are possible.


159 posted on 06/08/2011 9:10:44 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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