NV - Clark County has enough for a majority hispanic district. That might make the 1st a bit more competitive, but I’d still look for a 2-2 split in the delegation.
NH - nearly even already.
NJ - 1st needs to add 63K. 2nd, 3rd, and 4th can either add 164K or lose 568K. However, the 6th and 12th cannot absorb even 1/2 of 568K so my guess is that the 6th will cede 164K.
The 10th needs to add 2K blacks and 98K residents; the 13th needs to add 20K hispanics and 48K residents.
The remnant of the 6th/12th is 474K, plus the 13th, 10th, 8th, and 9th gives 4.25 seats. But, Leonard Lance lost the Middlesex portion of the 7th, so I’d expect Dems to cut out at least 4.5 seats, and then match up Lance vs. Holt or maybe Pascrell or Rothman vs. Garrett.
NM - not too much change needed here. 1st is at 702K pop and 339K Hispanics (needs to be 686/343?); 2nd is at 663K/343K, and 3rd is at 693K/270K. Ironically enough, it’s the Anglo seat that’s represented by a Hispanic. 1st could gain some more of Santa Fe County (51% Hispanic) for Anglo areas in Sandoval or Torrance.
NY - A NYC-area seat will be lost and an upstate seat.
Majority black: 6, 10, 11. 6 needs to add 21K blacks and 66K residents. It is bordered by the 9th (only 34K blacks out of 660K in the district), the 5th (32/670), and the 4th (130/663). So most likely it has to expand into the 4th.
Suffolk get 2.08 seats (Bishop and Israel), and Nassau gets another 1.86 (King, McCarthy, Ackerman, and possibly Meeks will be nibbling away). So if King is safe, I’d say you’re looking at a McCarthy/Ackerman primary.
Majority hispanic: 16-Serrano (67%). Its neighbors are 15-Rangel (46% hispanic, 32% black; yes some are both) and 7-Crowley (44% hispanic).
Anyway, the 17th and 18th will need to take away about 135K of the current 19th. Connect the other 5 Republican districts and you’ve got 5 seats with 325K left over. But, if two Dems have to face each other in NYC then two R’s have to face each other upstate.
The 27th/28th (Buffalo/Rochester) Democrats need to add 195K of that. The 22nd (Lower Hudson-Ithaca) needs to add 38K and the 21st-23rd (Albany-Northway) needs to add 92K. Dems might prefer a Syracuse-Ithaca seat that would be very hard for Buerkle to hold.