Posted on 11/04/2010 7:57:42 PM PDT by scrabblehack
I suppose it is too much to hope for one suburban district that won’t comprise enough of the parasite class to elect a liberal.
Actually according to the 2009 estimates, WI still has 8 seats. There haven’t been any large relative shifts inside the state so if they did lose one it could be almost anywhere.
GA at +1
Gwinnett (east exurban) +0.22 of a seat
Fulton (Atlanta) + 0.18
Forsyth (northeast exurban) + 0.09
Henry (southeast exurban) + 0.09
Cherokee (northeast exurban) + 0.08
Paulding (northwest exurban) + 0.06
Cobb (northwest exurban) + 0.05
Fulton is Democrat; the other counties are Republican.
When the GOP gets through Gerrymandering, what’s the projection for overall GOP pickup in GA?
Well, I’m still grateful that the odious Patrick Murphy will NOT be sitting in congress this year. It’s probably petty of me, but I hope he does not qualify for a congressional pension either. He’s done the Army in particular and the 82d Airborne Division specifically a great disservice in my opinion, since he’s made it a point to cite his service in both as a qualification to extol homosexualizing our military. I’d be interested to know which government job or shyster law firm he’ll be hired on to.
Undoubtedly, GOP +1. Probably difficult to draw John Barrow out.
The other 4 Democrats are in rock solid districts, so it ends up 9-5 or 10-4.
Here’s the problem.
Fitzpatrick’s district is Bucks county. Even in 2006, he won Bucks county.
The problem is he needs another 80,000 residents. He can get them from Northhamption/Lehigh (and wreck Charlie Dent’s 15th district), or Philadelphia county (heavy D), or Montgomery county (a little less heavy D). Realistically the last one is the only option.
There needs to be REALLY careful line drawing here, or he’s just going to lose again in 2012, probably to Murphy.
It is pretty much impossible to draw a Republican district in Massachusetts, yeah.
I’m hoping the GOP in Pennsylvania implemenst some serious voter identification laws, along with penalties that are really penalties. Is the Philly area losing population?
No, it’s not losing population. PA districts have to grow a bit because of reapportionment, which lets us dump ~200k liberals in the 3 existing districts.
Johnson - safe
Lewis - safe
Scott - safe
Bishop cannot be gerrymandered out of a seat; indeed it might do to put Bibb County of the neighboring 8th in this district and make both seats less competitive.
The Dems get a big boost in the 12th from Chatham (Savannah) and Richmond (Augusta) Counties. It’s 45% black in 2000 so probably can’t be gerrymandered.
Currently 8-5 R, probably 9-5 R in 2012.
A multipartisan commission draws CA’s districts; the map must get approval of 3/5 Dems, 3/5 Reps, and 3/4 others.
Standards are:
(1) equal population
(2) compliant with Voting Rights Act
(3) geographically contiguous
(4) The geographic integrity of any city, county, city and county, local neighborhood, or local community of interest shall be respected in a manner that minimizes their division to the extent possible without violating the requirements of any of the preceding subdivisions. A community of interest is a contiguous population which shares common social and economic interests that should be included within a single district for purposes of its effective and fair representation. Examples of such shared interests are those common to an urban area, a rural area, an industrial area, or an agricultural area, and those common to areas in which the people share similar living standards, use the same transportation facilities, have similar work opportunities, or have access to the same media of communication relevant to the election process. Communities of interest shall not include relationships with political parties, incumbents, or political candidates.
(5) geographically compact without violating the above
You can completely shatter the 12th if you want. VRA doesn’t apply to 45% districts, I don’t think.
I just don’t see any gain in doing it.
AZ - Republicans control the process here. USCB estimates have Maricopa County (Phoenix) gaining 0.70 seats, Pinal (SE of Phoenix) 0.19 seats, and Pima (Tucson) 0.08 seats.
The highest vote totals were in the 8th, narrowly won by Giffords (D). Strangely enough, none of this district is Maricopa County; it has only a small piece of Pinal, and a large chunk of Pima.
Has inner city Phoenix experienced a lot of urban decay? The vote totals seem unusually low in the 4th (<76K to 200K average for the rest of the state). This could be illegal aliens or something though.
The next largest vote totals were in the 2nd, which stretches from northwest Maricopa around the state, through the Grand Canyon to what looks like the Hopi Indian Reservation. The vote totals in this part of the district seem so low it doesn’t seem worth the trouble of drawing the district this way.
Can’t do that. AZ redistricts by independent commission.
I’m surprised...as I say that 2nd district looks awfully strange....I’m not so hopeful about California now....
I had heard FL has an independent commission as well.
Pinellas (St. Pete) has lost 0.16 of a seat, mitigated by Pasco (northern exurbs) gaining 0.12 and Hillsborough (Tampa) gaining 0.11. Otherwise Lee (Ft. Myers) gains 0.13, Orange 0.12, Osceola 0.11, Lake 0.11...
CD 5 (including parts of Lake and Pasco) had over 300K votes....that one will shed constituents one way or another...not sure what the commission’s guidelines are, or whether they’re inclined to follow them...
South Carolina:
Greenville +0.13 of a seat, Horry (Myrtle Beach) +0.11,
York (Rock Hill - I want to say that’s exurban Charlotte) +0.10, Richland (Columbia) + 0.09, and Charleston +0.08.
So the new seat could be anywhere. The largest vote totals were in the 2nd district (Joe Wilson) which stretches from Columbia southeast to Port Royal and Beaufort. This was a rather salient race with the opposing candidate well funded as I recall, so it’s not necessarily the district with the highest population growth. Several counties in the district voted straight Democrat (US House, Governor, and US Senate).
Currently the R’s lead the delegation 5-1. I don’t think it’s possible to draw 6 safe R seats — no better than 5-1 and a tossup.
The FL 8th (Alan Grayson to Daniel Webster) is a Gerrymandered district. It won’t exist in its current form.
LA - it does look possible to connect New Orleans and Baton Rouge....probably the sparsest population route would be south through St. Bernard, Plaquemines, the south end of Jefferson, then northeast through St. Charles, St. John the Baptist, Ascension, and then East Baton Rouge. It still might be a competitive seat. If it is then maybe Cassidy of Baton Rouge could challenge Richmond.
Mary Landrieu isn’t up until 2014. The only state row office held by a Democrat is Attorney General (Buddy Caldwell). Jeff Landry of New Iberia is an attorney.
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