Posted on 11/04/2010 7:57:42 PM PDT by scrabblehack
They’d complain for sure, but Georgia is ready to start tossing out lawsuits. So is Texas.
This story is unbelievable. No, I mean I really don’t believe it.
http://topics.dallasnews.com/article/01nV3cLchh6Dc
Why it is false:
Here is the text of the redistricting act:
http://www.arkleg.state.ar.us/assembly/2011/2011R/Acts/Act1242.pdf
As you’ll notice, districts are divided along voting district lines. A voting district consists of one or more precincts. I find it *really* hard to believe that the Neal house is split between two voting districts. If so then they’ve been voting in separate places for some time. When they registered to vote, did the county clerk ask them which bedroom they slept in before assigning a precinct/voting district? I don’t believe it.
No, what happened here is that the AP reporter knew or found a family in Alma and made up the story.
That's not going to happen. When you get a Berkshires/Pioneer Valley district that stretches all the way to Route 128, it's not a Berkshires/Pioneer Valley district anymore.
Getting stuck with Springfield would at least keep the Western Mass character of the district.
I'd like to see Barney Frank get thrown in somebody else's district, but I doubt that's going to happen either.
Ah yes, at 4% ACU and 90% ADA, he’s the most conservative in the MA delegation.
VA state senate and house is done. There are three US House proposals:
http://redistricting.dls.virginia.gov/2010/RedistrictingPlans.aspx#3,map
The House plan looks most favorable to Republicans. I’d have to crunch it out to be more certain but the Senate plan that connects Portsmouth with Richmond might be hard for Forbes (R-Chesapeake) to hold. The Senate plan that puts all of Richmond in one district might be hard for Cantor (R-Richmond) to hold.
It looks like all 3 plans put Wolf (R-Vienna) and Connolly (D-Fairfax) in the same district, with a new district in the DC exurbs.
It actually could happen.
Massachusetts Democrats don’t care about communities of interest; and they want to preserve 2 Western MA seats even though Western MA only has the population for 1 seat.
So you stretch it east like that.
Anything could happen here. Lynch might get axed since people don’t like him.
Wolf must not live in Vienna proper. Maybe it’s more like Wolf Trap (which has a Vienna mailing address) According to the current plan, Vienna is in VA 11 rather than VA 10.
I was trying to figure out if it was possible to draw 2 majority black districts in SC. I don’t think so.
I could connect about 40 state legislative seats (all represented by Democrats) with sufficient population and just barely majority black. The blackest Republican state legislative seat is 36%.
But the area stretches from the Georgia line to the North Carolina line, and there are too many whites trapped on the Atlantic side of the black belt. If the new district has a Horry County (Myrtle Beach) focus, you need to cut through three state legislative seats along the NC border to get to more whites. Along the GA border, it’s two. I’m thinking this is the better way to go to get a 6-1 advantage anyway. So the new district would run from Horry County south toward Charleston, and then Tim Scott’s would run from Charleston south to Beaufort, then turn north along the Georgia border.
It won’t happen that way I believe.
Scott will get Beaufort + Charleston.
Wilson will collapse into Lexington and surrounding areas.
SC-7 will be Horry + Georgetown + the the Democratic Pee-Dee areas in SC-5.
Gowdy will drop half of Spartanburg County to Mulvaney, and Mulvaney obviously drops the Pee-Dee.
They don’t want Shaheen in the new district. So that kind of dictates the map.
OK, you must be more in tune than I am. Who/where is Shaheen?
http://vincentsheheen.com/about/
Before his election to the South Carolina Senate in 2004, Vincent served as a city prosecutor and a state representative. Now in his second full term, He represents Chesterfield, Kershaw, and Lancaster counties.
Shaheen lives in Kershaw County. So, the map basically has to be this:
MN House passes a map (with bipartisan support) — it goes to the Senate; Gov could veto.
http://www.gis.leg.mn/redist2010/Congressional/C1101_0/maps/statewide.pdf
Just from eyeballing it, I’d say it looks like Cravaack (R) gets a safer district and so does Peterson (D).
But if the map passes, then Tarryl Clark (Bachmann’s challenger in ‘10) will have to sell that condo in Duluth and move back to St. Cloud to challenge Cravaack.
See http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2716903/posts
NV passes a map also.
http://www.nevadanewsbureau.com/2011/05/05/democrats-unveil-proposed-congressional-district-maps/
Gov could veto NV map.
I was trying to figure out how practical it would be to try to protect newly elected Kathy Hochul. I suppose it depends if Dems think there has been an ideological shift in Western New York.
But I would say the best strategy for the Dems would be to stretch the 28th (renumbered as something else) east toward Ithaca/Syracuse, then the 26th would look more like the current 28th.
Buerkle and Hanna would probably end up facing each other, unless one thought he or she could beat Owens upstate.
IL Dems released their proposal — it does look ugly.
The new 2nd stretches south to Kankakee, taking in Kinzinger’s home of Manteno.
The new 6th contains Roskam’s Wheaton, Biggert’s Hinsdale and Hultgren’s Wheatfield.
The new 9th contains Kenilworth (Dold’s hometown); there is an empty 10th further north.
The new 13th contains both Johnson’s Champaign and Shimkus’ Collinsville. There is an empty 15th which Johnson may want to move to.
The new 17th contains both Schilling’s Colona and Schock’s Peoria. There is an empty 18th which Schock may want to move to.
There is an empty 8th — maybe Roskam could run in it.
Also an empty 11th — it appears to resemble the current 13th — maybe Biggert could run here.
It would appear Kinzinger either has to run in a majority black district or else move — the 16th (vs. Manzullo) would be the closest seat.
It’s ugly. The GOP currently has 11 seats; the Democrats are trying to cut that down to 6, and they did a decent job of it.
Roskam is the best candidate for that 8th (which is 61% Obama or so), but he will run in the 6th.
Biggert is the best candidate for that 11th (which is 61% Obama as well), but she might retire.
NE is done — not too many changes from the current map.
The 6th has to add 66K constituents, including 22K blacks to stay a majority black seat. There is a large cluster around Uniondale in the current 4th however if they are reassigned, McCarthy (54% in ‘10) becomes a lot easier to beat.
The adjoining 5th (Ackerman) and 9th (Weiner) are only 5% black.
The 10th (62% black) does not adjoin but the 9th is narrow enough that the 6th could take a small piece from the 9th plus a small piece from the 10th and remain majority black.
But then Weiner’s district is split in two. The 10th and 11th are black enough that they can donate 22k blacks to the 6th and still be majority black but they do have to add 125K constituents (maybe 165-175K if they donate to the 6th).
The 12th (Velazquez won unopposed in ‘10 but the seat is only 45% hispanic) will probably not grow in this direction.
So once the 13th adds 31K more from Brooklyn, there will be between 325K and 500K Brooklynites, mostly white, left over.
The 175K difference is whether the 10th and 11th grow this direction or not.
718K forms a seat so this part of Brooklyn will take in 218-393K constituents from Manhattan, just enough for the home of Jerrold Nadler.
Meanwhile, the 1st through 4th districts have a 176K deficiency. That will take up all of the Nassau County portion of the 5th and then some. Ackerman himself is short another 48K, so Ackerman takes up about 1/2 of the Queens portion of the 9th.
Crowley’s 7th district loses some of the Bronx and gains the remaining portion of the 9th.
Other scenarios are possible.
The Brooklyn portion of Weiner’s district was 52% D (Queens portion was 65% D). The Brooklyn portion of Nadler’s district was 53% D (Manhattan portion was 84% D).
The Rockaway Peninsula isn’t too heavily populated, so King’s district could stretch to Brooklyn. It might not be worth it though.
I’m thinking from the Dem perspective that they’d rather make things tougher on Weiner than McCarthy even before Weinergate and this just seals it.
I am not certain but I think the 6th has to remain majority black because of VRA.
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