I saw on a similar FR thread that Oberstar has the safest seat in the country, and that his constituency is a union stronghold. Does Cravaack have a good - or any - chance to win this?
It is true that Oberstar’s district is heavily Dem. But it’s culturally conservative. The residents of the 8th District like their snowmobiles and guns. They’re strongly pro-life and anti gay marriage.
Winning the 8th District is possible and if there ever a year to do that, this is the year. There does appear to be a stronger than usual level of dis-satisfaction with Oberstar, especially since he voted for cap and trade and sold out his pro-life credentials by voting for the Healthcare bill.
The key to Cravaack winning the district is that he must do exceptionally well in the southern and western parts of the district to off-set Oberstar’s strength in the city of Duluth and the rest of St Louis County.
Here’s a map of the district:
