Mark Hanna's Senate Projections (A View from the Left)

Andre Carson, however, is probably going to keep his grandma’s old seat for at least another 2 years (One more reason why all my relatives in Indiana have moved out of Marion County.)

Ah, yes. The great Carson legacy. Does he wear fluffy slippers in public like Julia used to?

CT is not a white collar state. Parts of it are suburbs of NYC and wealthy, full of country club Republicans and limo liberals. Other parts are very blue collar Dem working class.

Overall, it's a New England blue state. State legislature has a Dem supermajority, they've driven the fiscal situation into the ditch. Big surprise.

Delaware - Chris Coons vs. Christine O’Donnell. – I would actually make this one leans Republican.

The hopeful side of me says "tossup" on the hopes something extremely damaging will crash onto Coons. But it'd better happen soon.

I consider this good news , because he’s right on all but these 3 - Toomey wins PA, Angle wins NV, and I think Raese pulls WV upset:

Nevada - Harry Reid vs. Sharon Angle. The polls have been close, and some might argue Angle has a bit of momentum, but I think Reid pulls it out because minorities in Nevada are consistently underpolled, and the Democratic machine is strong.

West Virginia - Joe Manchin vs. John Raese. I’m actually more worried about this one than any of my other Lean Democrats. This is definitely 1996 Nebraska Senate Race (popular incumbent governor is defeated by underdog Republican) vs. 2010 PA-12 (Democrat wins against business guy in potentially hostile non-urban environment). I think Raese is a weaker candidate than Chuck Hagel in 1996, so I’m still giving this to Manchin. But it’s gonna be close.

Pennsylvania - Joe Sestak vs. Pat Toomey. I know, I know. The polls don’t show this right now. But Sestak should not be underestimated as a campaigner, and I still think once he gets on television he will close just like he did against Specter. Also, I still see Toomey as too conservative for Pennsylvania. I hope so, anyway.

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