Could someone post the Cliff’s Notes on this?
If you break the poll down by demographics, then there is no way to account for McCain’s lead going down. McCain has the same or more support from every group as he had when he was ahead. The polls are oversampling liberals.
The author is saying that Gallup has changed their weighting, and that in reality, McCain is leading. From the article:
Anyway, going back to my earlier piece on party weighting, if we go back and look at the historical track record for the last ten years in terms of self-identified party affiliation from actual exit polls, we see a clear standard of weights; 38.4% Democrat, 35.8% Republican, 26.0% Independent. If we then work them out to fill the liberal/moderate/conservative slots used by Gallup, the following weights have historical validity and may be used as a constant for poll responses:
Liberal Democrat 9% Moderate Democrat 16% Conservative Democrat 13% Independent 26% Liberal/Moderate Republican 23% Conservative Republican 13%
If we apply those weights to the poll response, here is what happens to the Gallup polling responses:
August 21: Obama 39.94%, McCain 43.43%, Undecided 16.63% August 28: Obama 40.04%, McCain 43.60%, Undecided 16.36% September 4: Obama 41.06%, McCain 41.77%, Undecided 17.17% September 11: Obama 42.04%, McCain 42.45%, Undecided 15.51% September 18: Obama 39.62%, McCain 45.71%, Undecided 14.67%
August 21: Obama 39.94%, McCain 43.43%, Undecided 16.63%
August 28: Obama 40.04%, McCain 43.60%, Undecided 16.36%
September 4: Obama 41.06%, McCain 41.77%, Undecided 17.17%
September 11: Obama 42.04%, McCain 42.45%, Undecided 15.51%
September 18: Obama 39.62%, McCain 45.71%, Undecided 14.67%
“Could someone post the Cliff’s Notes on this?”
1. DemRats are hurting, not helping Obama.
2. Polsters are changing weightings of Republican and Democrats to reflect Obama winning when, in fact, McCain is gaining faster than Obama.
That’s what I got from it. This guy needs an editor.