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What McCain's likely victory will mean for GOP congressional prospects
Red State ^ | April 23, 2008

Posted on 04/24/2008 2:36:38 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Given recent results in congressional elections and current polls, and given the beating we took in 2006, there is significant concern that 2008 will result in the Democrats making sweeping gains in the House and Senate.

Given the electoral history of the past few decades, I believe that the fears of Democrats picking up an additional 5 or more seats in the Senate, or 20 or more seats in the House, are WAY overstated, PROVIDED McCain wins by a few points or more in November.

Why? I surveyed the Senate elections occuring in presidential years. In no year at least since 1928 (as far back as I looked) did the party winning the popular vote of the presidency lose more than 3 seats (only one year was it 3--1940), while in 2000, the popular-vote losing, but electoral-vote winning party lost 4 seats. On the other hand, there are plenty of years in which the winning party did lose a seat or two (1996, 1972). And several years where the winning party won several seats.

Our large Senate class ressembles most the large, vulnerable GOP classes of 1986 and 2000, or the large Democratic class of 1940. So no chance of any major GOP gains.

I bet very similar numbers could be found in looking at House elections.

Apart from the presidential year advantage, there is still another reason to doubt the repeat of 2006-style gains :it's very difficult to have back-to-back sweeping gains in Congress. I think Roosevelt pulled it off from '32 through '36, but other than then, I can't think of any two successive cycles in each of which a party won large numbers of seats in both House and Senate. Why? Pendelums have a tendency to swing and all that.

Given that the Democrats look determined to nominate the least experienced, the most far-left candidate they've ever nominated, I'm cautiously optimistic that McCain will win by 5 points or more, and that therefore, the Democrats will pick up one or two seats in the Senate and maybe a handful of seats in the House.

(2010, on the other hand, may be a different story, especially if the recession continues).

Of course, if Obama should win by a landslide, then Democratic dreams (like our dreams in those heady days of 2005) of a filibuster-proof majority may not be so vain.

But come January 2009, expect a President McCain, with narrow Democratic margins in the House and Senate.


TOPICS: Parties; State and Local; U.S. Congress; U.S. Senate
KEYWORDS: 2008; election; elections; mccain
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To: Cowboy Bob
"Since Obama and Hillary are raising so much money, I expect that Democrat Senate and Congressional candidates may have trouble raising some of their own."

Soros et.al. isn't going to run out of $ regardless of what is spent on the Presidential race. It's the GOP who is financially abandoning their candidates for Senate and the House to try to make McCain competitive against infinite amounts of $ from the billionaires on the left.

21 posted on 04/24/2008 12:25:59 PM PDT by penowa
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Gas prices have risen $1.18/gal since the democRATS took over congress. The GOP needs to get busy and remind voters of this fact....it will result in a lot of rats being given the boot.


22 posted on 04/24/2008 2:15:54 PM PDT by Mogollon (Vote straight GOP for congress....our only protection against Obama-Clinton, or McCain.)
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To: LibLieSlayer

>>No way... we can define the dims as the party that caused it all. One year ago EVERYTHING was great in America... now everything is screwed up... The difference... pelosi and reid!<<

pelosi and reid are the biggest problem, but the problem is that voters don’t necessarily know or care what the truth is.


23 posted on 04/24/2008 7:45:15 PM PDT by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (I want to "Buy American" but the only things for sale made in the USA are politicians)
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To: ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
With a full-blown motgage crisis, $200/barrel oil, lost jobs, and the possibility that the war will continue or worsen, the voters could punish the GOP in 2010.

. Only problem for the Chicken Littles around here is all of the above is Media generated hype and hysteria. None of it is real. 96% of Mortgagees are paying on time, Oil is NO where near $200 a barrel, Jobless claims have dropped.

When did the American People become such whiners? This is part of the perfectly normal business cycle, not the hysteric end of the world the Junk Media is proclaiming.

24 posted on 04/25/2008 6:27:36 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (http://www.iraqvetsforcongress.com ---- Get involved, make a difference.)
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To: Liberty2007
he carried their water for so long

I am sorry I haven’t been following Rush, what’s he doing?

Maybe you should try listening instead of regurgitating the stupid comments made about him by wanna be pseudo Conservative 3rd rate radio hosts.

25 posted on 04/25/2008 6:31:39 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (http://www.iraqvetsforcongress.com ---- Get involved, make a difference.)
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To: LibLieSlayer
He has caused the dims to attack each other and it will lead to Chicago ‘68 in Denver. It is not about helping hildebeast but about destroying the dim party. The republicans are wussies. LLS

I think the dems are tearing each other apart is because they dont fear mccain in fact they dont care if he does win. If they feared Mccain they'd have a united front by now. that proves mccain is the wrong candidate.

26 posted on 04/25/2008 8:08:29 AM PDT by Liberty2007 (Wayne Allyn Root Rootforamerica.com LP candidate)
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To: MNJohnnie
Jobless claims have dropped.

Mar.-------Nov.------Dec.------Jan.------Feb.-------Mar.
2007------2007------2007------2008-----2008------2008
4.4--------4.7---------5.0--------4.9--------4.8--------5.1

Oil is NO where near $200 a barrel

Going in that direction though.

96% of Mortgagees are paying on time

Nice spin. When the murder rate goes up, do you say it's not a problem because 99% of people are not murdered? Foreclosures have gone up about 60% between Feb. 2007 and Feb. 2008.

Some of these trends can change before 2010, but there is real potential for rough economic times ahead.

27 posted on 04/25/2008 8:58:36 AM PDT by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (I want to "Buy American" but the only things for sale made in the USA are politicians)
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To: ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas

I know, you have your dogma has dictated to you by your DNC Masters and cannot be bothered to actually think about anything.

Sorry, but we Conservatives think our politics. We do not emote them.


28 posted on 04/25/2008 9:08:19 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (http://www.iraqvetsforcongress.com ---- Get involved, make a difference.)
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To: MNJohnnie; ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
Sorry, but we Conservatives think our politics. We do not emote them.

Pretty darn hilarious coming from someone who is a cheerleader for McAmnesty.

You are known by your actions, not your words.
29 posted on 04/25/2008 12:31:15 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (GOP: If you reward bad behavior all you get is more bad behavior.)
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To: MNJohnnie

If you are going hurl insults like a 10 year old, I can’t help you.


30 posted on 04/25/2008 1:12:59 PM PDT by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (I want to "Buy American" but the only things for sale made in the USA are politicians)
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To: SoConPubbie; MNJohnnie

Thanks. I thought I remembered MNJohnnie as one of the amnesty believers from summer last year.


31 posted on 04/25/2008 1:17:29 PM PDT by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (I want to "Buy American" but the only things for sale made in the USA are politicians)
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To: Liberty2007
Where do you get that I think mclame is the right candidate???... far from it. Show me an alternative... I wish we had one!

LLS

32 posted on 04/26/2008 7:15:29 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Could I ever vote for mcstain? NOT if jerk-face keeps running his liberal mouth!!!)
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To: LibLieSlayer

Oh I know that, should have posted it to ALL instead


33 posted on 04/26/2008 8:23:41 AM PDT by Liberty2007 (Wayne Allyn Root Rootforamerica.com LP candidate)
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To: Liberty2007

No problemo... except for mcinsane... he is a problem!

LLS


34 posted on 04/27/2008 7:07:08 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Could I ever vote for mcstain? NOT if jerk-face keeps running his liberal mouth!!!)
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