Posted on 04/24/2008 2:36:38 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Given recent results in congressional elections and current polls, and given the beating we took in 2006, there is significant concern that 2008 will result in the Democrats making sweeping gains in the House and Senate.
Given the electoral history of the past few decades, I believe that the fears of Democrats picking up an additional 5 or more seats in the Senate, or 20 or more seats in the House, are WAY overstated, PROVIDED McCain wins by a few points or more in November.
Why? I surveyed the Senate elections occuring in presidential years. In no year at least since 1928 (as far back as I looked) did the party winning the popular vote of the presidency lose more than 3 seats (only one year was it 3--1940), while in 2000, the popular-vote losing, but electoral-vote winning party lost 4 seats. On the other hand, there are plenty of years in which the winning party did lose a seat or two (1996, 1972). And several years where the winning party won several seats.
Our large Senate class ressembles most the large, vulnerable GOP classes of 1986 and 2000, or the large Democratic class of 1940. So no chance of any major GOP gains.
I bet very similar numbers could be found in looking at House elections.
Apart from the presidential year advantage, there is still another reason to doubt the repeat of 2006-style gains :it's very difficult to have back-to-back sweeping gains in Congress. I think Roosevelt pulled it off from '32 through '36, but other than then, I can't think of any two successive cycles in each of which a party won large numbers of seats in both House and Senate. Why? Pendelums have a tendency to swing and all that.
Given that the Democrats look determined to nominate the least experienced, the most far-left candidate they've ever nominated, I'm cautiously optimistic that McCain will win by 5 points or more, and that therefore, the Democrats will pick up one or two seats in the Senate and maybe a handful of seats in the House.
(2010, on the other hand, may be a different story, especially if the recession continues).
Of course, if Obama should win by a landslide, then Democratic dreams (like our dreams in those heady days of 2005) of a filibuster-proof majority may not be so vain.
But come January 2009, expect a President McCain, with narrow Democratic margins in the House and Senate.
Soros et.al. isn't going to run out of $ regardless of what is spent on the Presidential race. It's the GOP who is financially abandoning their candidates for Senate and the House to try to make McCain competitive against infinite amounts of $ from the billionaires on the left.
Gas prices have risen $1.18/gal since the democRATS took over congress. The GOP needs to get busy and remind voters of this fact....it will result in a lot of rats being given the boot.
>>No way... we can define the dims as the party that caused it all. One year ago EVERYTHING was great in America... now everything is screwed up... The difference... pelosi and reid!<<
pelosi and reid are the biggest problem, but the problem is that voters don’t necessarily know or care what the truth is.
. Only problem for the Chicken Littles around here is all of the above is Media generated hype and hysteria. None of it is real. 96% of Mortgagees are paying on time, Oil is NO where near $200 a barrel, Jobless claims have dropped.
When did the American People become such whiners? This is part of the perfectly normal business cycle, not the hysteric end of the world the Junk Media is proclaiming.
I am sorry I havent been following Rush, whats he doing?
Maybe you should try listening instead of regurgitating the stupid comments made about him by wanna be pseudo Conservative 3rd rate radio hosts.
I think the dems are tearing each other apart is because they dont fear mccain in fact they dont care if he does win. If they feared Mccain they'd have a united front by now. that proves mccain is the wrong candidate.
Oil is NO where near $200 a barrel
Going in that direction though.
96% of Mortgagees are paying on time
Nice spin. When the murder rate goes up, do you say it's not a problem because 99% of people are not murdered? Foreclosures have gone up about 60% between Feb. 2007 and Feb. 2008.
Some of these trends can change before 2010, but there is real potential for rough economic times ahead.
I know, you have your dogma has dictated to you by your DNC Masters and cannot be bothered to actually think about anything.
Sorry, but we Conservatives think our politics. We do not emote them.
If you are going hurl insults like a 10 year old, I can’t help you.
Thanks. I thought I remembered MNJohnnie as one of the amnesty believers from summer last year.
LLS
Oh I know that, should have posted it to ALL instead
No problemo... except for mcinsane... he is a problem!
LLS
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