McCain may drop out, back Thompson

NW Republican ^ | January 03, 2008

[668 - Neighbor of the Beast]

Rasmussen today has Romney barely ahead, everybody’s between 13 and 18 percent. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

[papasmurf]

They might as well. I count a total of 3 advertisers left on their site.

3 months ago, they had 15.

[Greg F]

I’m hoping for a brokered convention. It could be an unforeseen consequence of a front loaded primary schedule with super-tuesday. If low $ candidates pick states they can win in to spend their funds and time (and do) then we could end up with it more easily than some expect. I’ve done no analysis on this . . . just a “vibe” I get from a guy like Huckabee coming up so quickly and being so vulnerable in states out west and up north with fewer evangelical voters.

[Kevmo]

:
I would love to see a brokered convention.
***The chances of a brokered convention are 15% per Intrade futures.

REP.NOM.2008.BROKERED
The 2008 Republican Pres. Nominee to be selected at a Brokered Convention M 15.0 20.0 15.0 60 0

Intrade just showed McCain taking the LEAD for the nomination within the last couple of days. It’s not that likely that he will drop out.

2008 Republican Presidential Nominee
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN
John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 27.2 28.0 28.0 174309 +4.0
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 22.5 23.7 22.5 111892 -1.3
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 23.1 23.9 23.1 143890 -4.7
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 12.1 12.9 12.9 92267 +1.9
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL
Ron Paul to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 7.2 7.9 8.0 95151 +1.0
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 2.6 2.9 2.7 100493 -0.3
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE
Condoleezza Rice to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.3 0.8 0.6 111028 0
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH
Newt Gingrich to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.4 0.5 0.4 60856 0
2008.GOP.NOM.BLOOMBERG
Michael Bloomberg to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.2 0.1 36197 0
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER
Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.2 0.1 31967 0

Thompson leads the GOP pack in terms of dropout likelihood. The only gainer on this contract today is Romney, probably for planting the fred dropout rumor and indicators he isn’t winning in Iowa today.

DROPOUT.JAN08.MCCAIN
John McCain to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 10.0
DROPOUT.JAN08.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 10.2
DROPOUT.JAN08.OBAMA
Barack Obama to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 5.0
DROPOUT.JAN08.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 1.0
DROPOUT.JAN08.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 5.1
DROPOUT.JAN08.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 9.0
DROPOUT.JAN08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 35.2

Basically, it’s a wide open race, with the lead changing on a weekly basis. Might as well support the true conservative, Hunter.

.

.

.

.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

[Steelerfan]

Have to agree. There is no way he is dropping out before NH and Michigan.

By the way, I love all the stories about this candidate or that candidate “surging”. Although they will never give the military any credit, the media recognizes when a word has developed a positive connotation.

[Politicalmom]

Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference

WARNING: If you want to be added to this list, this ping list is EXTREMELY active.

[brothers4thID]

Kevmo, when Duncan Hunter is the clear loser in the Iowa caucus and the NH primary will you please add THOSE facts to you list?

Thank you.

[trisham]

It makes more sense than the earlier story, but still.

[Right Cal Gal]

It embarrasses me no end to ask this — what precisely is a “brokered” convention and is it a good or bad thing?

Oh look....an essay question....

[Kevmo]

I have not been withholding facts that bear negatively on Hunter.

As a matter of fact, for several debates, I posted Huckabee as the winner with the Intrade analysis. Then when I posted Hunter as the winner, there was a bunch of invective aimed my way. Why do you think that is?

[#1CTYankee]

Need a graphic

Not this ---- again.

[ejonesie22]

Ya just had to do it, didn’t you...;-)

[ejonesie22]

I am waiting for the “All candidates from both parties drop out, endorse Paul/Kucinich” story...

[America_Right]

By the way, I love all the stories about this candidate or that candidate “surging”. Although they will never give the military any credit, the media recognizes when a word has developed a positive connotation.

Did you hear about some college in OH that is banning certain words? "Surge" is one of them.

[RockinRight]

I assume this is just a fake rumor to poke fun at the “Fred’s Dropping Out and Endorsing McCain” lie posted earlier...but I wish it would happen! (McCain dropping that is!)

[sitetest]

Dear Right Cal Gal,

A brokered convention is one where no single candidate arrives at the convention with enough delegates to secure the nomination, either by holding a majority of delegates, or such a large plurality and advantage over all the other candidates that winning the nomination is a certainty.

In this circumstance, leaders of different factions of the party, who have effective control over large blocks of delegates, will gather together and hash out a deal to cobble together enough delegate votes to put someone over the top and produce a nominee.

At this point, the nominee may not even be someone who had been running previously.

sitetest

[Political Junkie Too]

Do these folks at Politico have any credibility at all?

I have a general disregard for the MSM, and a specific suspicion of anyone associated with the Washington Post after the Macaca coverage of George Allen. Therefore, I have extreme suspicion of the motives of the Politico (formed by former WaPo staffers) and its rapid ascension as a leading punditry of politics.

To me, this is another echo chamber effect, where someone plants a story and then the rest of the MSM echos the story all day long, presumably because "the story" is now the story -- it is no longer about the factual basis for the allegations (or lack thereof).

This gives the MSM cover to continue talking about "the story," the denials of "the story," the investigation of "the story," etc. It is nothing but self-aggrandizing of the MSM, by the MSM, and for the MSM.

-PJ

[Steelerfan]

Please tell me you are joking. “Banning” words? Does the college understand the meaning of Orwellian?

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

Nice thought, but lately, Politico is about as reliable a source of information as TASS used to be.

[Right Cal Gal]

Steelerfan - they are the personification of the word “Orwellian”