Polling Memorandum
| To |
Kilgore for Governor Friends and Supporters
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| From |
Ken Hutcheson, Campaign Manager
Virginians for Jerry Kilgore
|
| Date |
November 4, 2005
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| Re |
New Mason-Dixon Poll |
As we head into the final weekend before the Election, the race for Governor is a statistical tie and, as we have said before, the race will be won by the campaign that best turns out its supporters on Tuesday.
History demonstrates that Republican statewide candidates finish very strong and on average, achieve a five to six point boost in the final weekend based on superior turnout operations. In fact, in the Washington Post last Sunday, a prominent Democrat opined that for Democrats to win statewide in Virginia, they need to be leading by five or more points heading into the weekend before the Election. That is clearly not the case this year.
The energy out in the field is tremendous and very positive for Jerry. Garnering 44% in the latest Mason-Dixon poll to Kaine’s 45% is a strong indication that Kaine’s attempt to mask his liberal record and extreme views has not worked.
Further inspection of the poll reveals positive trends for us heading into Election Day. The regional breakdowns in this poll suggest that Tim Kaine’s rural strategy has fallen flat and voters in rural Virginia have seen through his cynical charade. Furthermore, Jerry Kilgore leads Tim Kaine’s home region of Richmond. The regional breakdowns are:
| Shenandoah Valley |
Kilgore 52% to Kaine 39% |
| Richmond |
Kilgore 44% to Kaine 42% |
| Southside |
Kilgore 51% to Kaine 39% |
| Southwest |
Kilgore 51% to Kaine 40% |
| Hampton Roads |
Kilgore 42% to Kaine 48% |
| Northern Virginia |
Kilgore 37% to Kaine 53% |
(Note - these regional breakdowns are much more accurate than the flawed and biased Washington Post poll from last Sunday that didn’t even report on two of the regions because the numbers were wrong.)
While it is clear we have our work cut out for us, we are finishing with momentum and strength and a well coordinated final effort will make the difference. We just need your help to get the vote out on Tuesday and then we can all celebrate on Tuesday night. In the meantime, here is an excellent Op-ed piece from today’s Richmond Times-Dispatch that you might want to read and forward to undecided voters you know.
Please also be on the lookout for our next email - we will have a major announcement to make on Friday during the day. Thank you for your dedication and steadfast resolve to win.
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