I'm not really surprised. Blagojevich has been a less-than-stellar governor. He has alienated people high up in his own party. He's been having a strange, ongoing feud with his father-in-law, a major Chicago alderman. I think a lot of people perceive Blagovich to be a bit on the shady side and I think after the fiasco of George Ryan's governorship, plenty of people are tired of that. He obviously has a much higher name recognition than Rauschenberger right now but, I think that to the extent that people know him, Rauschenberger has the image of being competent and clean. Of course, in the election, Blagojevich will win Chicago, but the margin of his win there will depend on how well the machine turns out the vote. Daley evidently likes having a Republican in the state house, and at this point, I don't see massive enthusiams for Blagojevich. Rauschenberger comes from Elgin, which is in the "collar counties" -- suburban Chicago area that have traditionally been strong for the GOP. So he should do well there. And he should do well downstate. Outside of a few counties and metropolitan areas, that is also very strongly Republican. Of course, a lot depends on how the local organizations turn out the vote. But even Alan Keyes did well in those areas and, if I recall correctly, won the vote in at least one county.
If this poll is even reasonably accurate, then the Democrat tide that swept Illinois may be receeding.