"But is it an absolute certainty that Sarbanes will retire?"
If Sarbanes dies in office - and, no, I'm not wishing that - Governor Ehrlich should appoint O'Malley as his replacement. Not saying it would happen, but it would knock Ehrlich's biggest potential challenger out of the race for Governor in 2006.
Word is Sarbanes was waiting to see if the Dems would recapture the Senate in the just concluded elections. Had the Dems taken control, Sarbanes would've been Chairman of the Banking Committee - Uber Powerful.
As for Lt. Governor Steele, he has never offered so much as a hint that he'd like to run for US Senate. He wants to run for Governor following a second Ehrlich term. Of course, depending on who would be the likely Dem nominee, that could change.
It's also possible E J Pipkin may run. He is the State Senator from our district that just got trounced by Mikulski last year, but he has plenty of money and could do much better against Mfume.
And BTW, Pipkin is NOT a RINO, he is the real thing, which is pretty amazing in this state.