Dan, this looks very bad. How the heck are conservatives supposed to stop both Schwarz *and* Bisbee? Let's say that 75% of GOP primary voters in the district are conservatives and 25% are moderates (actually, that sounds like our best-case scenario, but let's stipulate these numbers). Schwarz should get the lion's share of the moderate votes, although he would lose some to each of the conservatives in their respective home bases. Schwarz would also get some conservative votes within his state senate district. So let's assume that Schwarz will get 25% (a conservative estimate if you ask me). So the remaining 75% of the vote, mostly conservatives but some moderates in the home turf of each conservative candidate, could well be split among 5 candidates.
Even if there is a Stop Bisbee movement to go with the Stop Schwarz movement, it will probably mean that 50% of the vote will be split among the 4 non-Bisbee conservatives, since Bisbee should get around 25% due to his endorsements and base in Jackson. Unless one of those 4 non-Bisbee conservative is annointed and endorsed by the other 3, I think the most likely scenario would be that the nomination would be a horserace between Schwarz and Bisbee, and Schwarz could very well win. As terrible as it sounds, unless 3 of the 4 non-Bisbee conservatives drop out and endorse the 4th one (which does not appear likely), our best bet may be to hold our noses and support Bisbee to ensure that Schwarz doesn't win.
Given the weak Dem field, Bisbee should be able to win the general election with ease, and we can then pick a single conservative to run against him in the GOP primary in 2006 (we would have two years to have selected one candidate to take on Bisbee). I wish we could avoid having to undertake this approach, but as long as 4 conservatives split the non-Bisbee and non-Schwarz vote, there is no way any of them can win in 2004.
That said, at the state convention, I didn't see any visable support for any of the candidates except Gene DeRossett. I saw a lot of DeRossett stickers there. Granted, that's not a scientific gage, but gives a clue to where a lot of the establishment and/or grass roots stand.