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I've been watching the Senate races pretty closely and it is going to be interesting. Here's what I got.

I see a total of 9 races that look like they will be very close and could switch parties:

1) South Carolina - Beasley/DeMint vs. Tenenbaum
2) North Carolina - Burr vs. Bowles
3) Louisiana - Vitter vs. John
4) Florida - McCollum/Martinez vs. Deutsch/Castor/Penelas
5) Oklahoma - Coburn/Humphreys vs. Carson
6) Colorado - Coors/Schaffer vs. Salazar
7) Pennsylvania - Toomey/Specter vs. Hoeffel
8) Alaska - Murkowski vs. Knowles
9) South Dakota - Thune vs. Daschle

At this point, I see Zell Miller's seat in Georgia going to a Republican and Peter Fizgerald's seat in Illinois going to a Democrat. Isakson, Collins, or Cain should be able to win in Georgia with Bush on top of the ticket against Majette. Something is going to have to change before I interpret the primary results in Illinois as anything but a sign that Obama looks to be the strong favorite. Ryan has a chance, but I'm not optimistic because Bush is close to writing off the state and the state GOP won't offer much assistance either.

There are 4 races that probably won't be very close but at least have a reasonable shot at becoming so:

1) Washington - Nethercutt vs. Murray
2) California - Jones vs. Boxer
3) Wisconsin - Michels/Darrow/Welch vs. Feingold
4) Missouri - Bond vs. Farmer

The rest of the races probably won't be much to watch as one side is heavlily favored. For the GOP, Bennett, Brownback, Bunning, Crapo, Grassley, Gregg, McCain, and Voinovich should face easy re-elections. For the Dems, it's Bayh, Dodd, Dorgan, Inouye, Leahy, Lincoln, Mikulski, Reid, Schumer, and Wyden with easy paths to re-election. Nevada and Arkansas were the biggest recruiting failures of the GOP in this cycle. Reid should not have gotten a pass from Jim Gibbons and Lincoln would have been vulnerable to Asa Hutchison or Mike Huckabee.

Overall, the Dems did a better job this cycle recruiting and creating a small opportunity to actually win back the Senate. A year ago, the Dems were thought to have ZERO chance of retaking the Senate and now once-safe seats in Colorado, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania are very much in play. Georgia was the Dems only major recruiting stumble. They actually got some of their "dream" candidates to run for seats, unlike the GOP who failed to get even one Ed Shaffer or Rudy Giuliani to give it a try. Knowles, Tenenbaum, and Carson were all considered the strongest possible candidates the Dems could get in their respective states and they got all three, which I find quite impressive considering we can't seem to do the same. They also cleared the field nicely for Hoeffel in Pennsylvania and Salazar in Colrado. Bowles isn't a great candidate, but he's rich and he has good name ID from running for Senate in 2002 against Liddy Dole. All three of the Democratic candidates in Florida should be considred top-tier, while McCollum could be a disaster-in-waiting for Republicans.

While I previously thought the GOP would gain at least 3 seats in 2004, I now think a one or two seat gain is more likely. It is really tough to guess right now given the possible scenarios that could develop, including yet-to-be-decided primaries in South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Georgia, and Colorado. If the right candidates make it through we should do well but if not we might be in trouble. In specific, I would sour on our chances in Florida if McCollum is nominated and in Oklahoma if Humphreys is nominated.