Congressional Races to watch so far 2004 - ALL States

Several Sources | 4-8-04 | Dan from MI

[Dan from Michigan]

If any of you here have more to add or any insights on these races, by all means, please do.

[zebrahead]

I've been watching the Senate races pretty closely and it is going to be interesting. Here's what I got.

I see a total of 9 races that look like they will be very close and could switch parties:

1) South Carolina - Beasley/DeMint vs. Tenenbaum
2) North Carolina - Burr vs. Bowles
3) Louisiana - Vitter vs. John
4) Florida - McCollum/Martinez vs. Deutsch/Castor/Penelas
5) Oklahoma - Coburn/Humphreys vs. Carson
6) Colorado - Coors/Schaffer vs. Salazar
7) Pennsylvania - Toomey/Specter vs. Hoeffel
8) Alaska - Murkowski vs. Knowles
9) South Dakota - Thune vs. Daschle

At this point, I see Zell Miller's seat in Georgia going to a Republican and Peter Fizgerald's seat in Illinois going to a Democrat. Isakson, Collins, or Cain should be able to win in Georgia with Bush on top of the ticket against Majette. Something is going to have to change before I interpret the primary results in Illinois as anything but a sign that Obama looks to be the strong favorite. Ryan has a chance, but I'm not optimistic because Bush is close to writing off the state and the state GOP won't offer much assistance either.

There are 4 races that probably won't be very close but at least have a reasonable shot at becoming so:

1) Washington - Nethercutt vs. Murray
2) California - Jones vs. Boxer
3) Wisconsin - Michels/Darrow/Welch vs. Feingold
4) Missouri - Bond vs. Farmer

The rest of the races probably won't be much to watch as one side is heavlily favored. For the GOP, Bennett, Brownback, Bunning, Crapo, Grassley, Gregg, McCain, and Voinovich should face easy re-elections. For the Dems, it's Bayh, Dodd, Dorgan, Inouye, Leahy, Lincoln, Mikulski, Reid, Schumer, and Wyden with easy paths to re-election. Nevada and Arkansas were the biggest recruiting failures of the GOP in this cycle. Reid should not have gotten a pass from Jim Gibbons and Lincoln would have been vulnerable to Asa Hutchison or Mike Huckabee.

Overall, the Dems did a better job this cycle recruiting and creating a small opportunity to actually win back the Senate. A year ago, the Dems were thought to have ZERO chance of retaking the Senate and now once-safe seats in Colorado, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania are very much in play. Georgia was the Dems only major recruiting stumble. They actually got some of their "dream" candidates to run for seats, unlike the GOP who failed to get even one Ed Shaffer or Rudy Giuliani to give it a try. Knowles, Tenenbaum, and Carson were all considered the strongest possible candidates the Dems could get in their respective states and they got all three, which I find quite impressive considering we can't seem to do the same. They also cleared the field nicely for Hoeffel in Pennsylvania and Salazar in Colrado. Bowles isn't a great candidate, but he's rich and he has good name ID from running for Senate in 2002 against Liddy Dole. All three of the Democratic candidates in Florida should be considred top-tier, while McCollum could be a disaster-in-waiting for Republicans.

While I previously thought the GOP would gain at least 3 seats in 2004, I now think a one or two seat gain is more likely. It is really tough to guess right now given the possible scenarios that could develop, including yet-to-be-decided primaries in South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Georgia, and Colorado. If the right candidates make it through we should do well but if not we might be in trouble. In specific, I would sour on our chances in Florida if McCollum is nominated and in Oklahoma if Humphreys is nominated.

[rhinohunter]

There is no district 7 in KY.

[Dan from Michigan]

Sorry about that. Mix up.

Chandler's is KY - 6
Lucas/Clooney is KY - 4
Northup is KY - 3

[zbigreddogz]

First off, SC is almost a sure thing. NC and OK are also leaning heavily R.

And McCollum isn't going to be the nominee. Mel Martinez will be. And Mel Martinez is a dream candidate.

[Clintonfatigued]

In Missisippi District 2, 'Rat Bennie Thompson was reelected with a closer-than-expected margin in 2002 and faces a rematch with Clinton DeSeur. With Bush at the top of the ticket and no major races here, this has the potential to be a sleeper.

In Mississippi Distrcit 5, conservative 'Rat Gene Taylor runs ahead of party lines in this heavily Republican district. For the first time in his Congressional career, he faces a sitting officeholder, state Rep. Mike Lott. Though not related to the locally popular Trent Lott, Mike Lott could benefit from the name confusion. Taylor should win, but if his margin falls, he may seek another office soon, opening this seat up.

[Clintonfatigued]

Here's another: In Arkansas Distrcit 2, liberal 'Rat Congressman Vic Snyder (D-Little Rock) has drawn state House Minority Leader Marvin Parks as an opponent. Parks has had early fundraising success and could produce an upset.

[Brandon]

DISTRICT 2 - Jim Leach (R) - I remember Iowa's redistricting was tough overall and I think this is a dem district for the most part and Leach's tenure(as well as his liberalism) is what makes him strong. Leach got 52.2% against Julianne Thomas in 02 and faces Iowa City School Board member Dave Franker.

I live in this district. Leach was first elected in 1976, and imho will hold the seat until he either retires or dies. I am casually acquainted with Dave Franker, and he's a nice guy, but he's to the left of Leach, and even the 2nd District won't go that far, especially considering Leach's seniority and RINO-hood (and I don't use that term lightly).

[zebrahead]

I completely agree in expecting Republican victories in NC and SC, but it will likely be close. Oklahoma is far from leaning heavily Republican, especially if Humphreys is the nominee. Martinez might be considered a dream candidate because of his profile. His lack of experience and name recognition might suggest otherwise.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

I doubt the GOP has much of a chance in TX CD- 28, but if we do, the best that can be done is to nominate Canseco.

[zbigreddogz]

It depends on what you mean by 'close'. I think we'll get at least 52% in both races.

Oaklahoma isn't heavily R if Humphries is the nominee, I agree, but I think Coburn is gonna smash him in the primary, and if he does, he's as close to invincible as they come.

[zbigreddogz]

Bowles got 45% of the vote last time. Not exactly a squeeker loss. I don't see how he's gonna pick up an extra 5%+1.

None of the polls have him running over 45% (at least none I've seen). He's got his support shored up, but I don't see him getting much more.

Burr's a great campaigner, from what I've heard. I expect him to trash Bowles.

[ken5050]

super job, and thanks..we were away, so I'm just catching up...

two points, if I may...Alaskam won't even be close...she'll will easily..Bush is 20% ahead, that would posit a HUGE amount of ticket splitting for the dems to pull out the senate race, and the Dem candidate will be running AGAINST his party's positiion on ANWR....

re Georgia...McKinney is gonna hurt the dems badly...I can't wait to see Kerry come there to campaign in Atlanta..and as a liberal, and dmajority balck citt, it's the one place int he south he'll have to put in an appearance...so picture Kerry ont he dias with Cynthia....and superimposed with her dad's comments after the 2002 election..

[AuH2ORepublican]

Good list. But you forgot a few good races. Off the top of my head:

In Oregon, Republican State Senator Jackie Winters is challenging Democrat Congresswoman Darlene Hooley in a district that Bush carried in 2000. If elected, Winters would be the first black female Republican in Congress. See http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/1109340/posts

Also, you forgot about Randy Graf's primary challenge to RINO Congressman Jim Kolbe in Arizina. See http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1103692/posts

[rapture-me]

DISTRICT 17 - Chet Edwards(D) survived his last race with 51.5%. He's facing either Ex Waco School Board President Dot Snyder or State Rep Arlene Wohlgemuth. Hopefully Edwards finally gets the boot.

Arlene won the run-off election so Cheat will now face her. If anyone can beat him, it's Arlene. GOODBY Chet! Good riddance!

[deport]

Texas House Races post primaries

[arkansasrose]

Maybe not much chance of a win this time but hopefully paving the way for an eventual win - Arkansas' 1st congressional district race: Republican Vernon Humphries is taking on Democrat Marion "bubble up" Berry.