[sboyd]

Any anaysis from other freepers?

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[Kuksool]

Good analysis of the Senate races.

[MJR DAD]

I project:
1. RAT lose their seats in GA, FL, LA, NC, SC, and ND.
2. GOP lose their seat in IL.

Endstate: GOP 56, RATs 43, IND 1.

[Lady Jag]

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[Clintonfatigued]

Nevada: Jack Woodcock has an outside chance of unseating Harry Reid. Woodcock has some personal wealth, and Reid has a history of weaker-than-expected showings on election day. I say this race is worth persuing. The Reno-Sparks-Carson City area will probably be the deciding factor.

Washington state: George Nethercutt has proven himself to be even more inept that the airhead he's running against. People worried about his eastern Washington base, so what does he do? Moves to the Seattle area so he can call himself a local. It doesn't change that he's never won an election in the Puget Sound area, but does show that he has no loyalty to his hometown. In other words, he alienated his home base and gained nothing in return. Brilliant. And don't forget the term-limit promise. Is it too late to find another candidate?

Missouri: Most conservatives seem to forget that state Treasurer Nancy Farmer has won a statewide election in 2000. Furthermore, she defeated a better-known opponent and polled 75,000 more votes than Al Gore. Kit Bond's longivity is less impressive than it looks (like Harry Reid's), and the only time he won by a double-didget margin was in 1972. All the ingredients of an over-confident incumbent being upset are here.

[The Old Hoosier]

South Dakota- Close, but definitely leaning Daschle. South Dakotans love their pork. NO CHANGE Alaska- You've got this one right. Lisa will win. Knowles has never had to go head-to-head against anyone. By the way, John Lindauer, his first opponent as governor who had to drop out of the race, is the father of that crazy Lindauer woman in Takoma Park, Md. who was arrested for espionage. NO CHANGE North Carolina- Advantage for Burr over Bowles, but it's probably only a three or four point margin. GOP +1 South Carolina- Condon could win a runoff against Beasley. Either way, I think ultimately the Bush margin and her own liberalism will kill Tennenbaum. GOP +1 Georgia- The only question here is which Republican it will be. Isakson is a moderate-liberal Republican. I think Mac Collins is hopeless, but if he and Herman Cain can hold Isakson under 50%, I think one of the conservatives could win a no-holds-barred runoff. We're better off with Miller than with Isakson, so this race could be a loss. GOP +1 Florida- If Deutsch is the nominee, it's a cakewalk. If Castor, it's tough, but she does have some splaining to do, also on this "get Rush" business. McCollum will be the GOP nominee almost for sure. Dems are going to be hurting for money with all these southern states, so maybe I'll punt and call TOSSUP. Louisiana- Vitter will definitely place first in the jungle primary, but the rest of the story is unclear. Buddy Roemer (R.) is talking about getting in. That might sound bad, but he could actually cause a two-Republican runoff, since right now he polls just ahead of both John and Kennedy. The Dems are hurt by the presence of a black candidate at the bottom of the ballot, but I forget his name. You've got to like the chances here. GOP +1 Illinois- You've got it right, toss-up, very winnable for Ryan. And it's Barack Obama. But hey, don't forget this is Illinois. DEM +1 Colorado- I'm afraid Salazar is the prohibitive favorite. We still need to learn more about this Coors guy, but I've written this one off. DEM +1 Oklahoma- Coburn will win, if he gets the nomination. NO CHANGE CA- write this one off. NO CHANGE Wisconsin- Forget it. NO CHANGE Add: Pennsylvania: Specter is not invincible, as Jon Corzine has been pointing out. Still, the race becomes more interesting if Toomey wins and becomes a toss-up. NO CHANGE RESULT: Republicans net two seats, maybe three.

[The Old Hoosier]

Sorry, formatting:

South Dakota- Close, but definitely leaning Daschle. South Dakotans love their pork. NO CHANGE

Alaska- You've got this one right. Lisa will win. Knowles has never had to go head-to-head against anyone. By the way, John Lindauer, his first opponent as governor who had to drop out of the race, is the father of that crazy Lindauer woman in Takoma Park, Md. who was arrested for espionage. NO CHANGE

North Carolina- Advantage for Burr over Bowles, but it's probably only a three or four point margin. GOP +1

South Carolina- Condon could win a runoff against Beasley. Either way, I think ultimately the Bush margin and her own liberalism will kill Tennenbaum. GOP +1

Georgia- The only question here is which Republican it will be. Isakson is a moderate-liberal Republican. I think Mac Collins is hopeless, but if he and Herman Cain can hold Isakson under 50%, I think one of the conservatives could win a no-holds-barred runoff. We're better off with Miller than with Isakson, so this race could be a loss. GOP +1

Florida- If Deutsch is the nominee, it's a cakewalk. If Castor, it's tough, but she does have some splaining to do, also on this "get Rush" business. McCollum will be the GOP nominee almost for sure. Dems are going to be hurting for money with all these southern states, so maybe I'll punt and call TOSSUP.

Louisiana- Vitter will definitely place first in the jungle primary, but the rest of the story is unclear. Buddy Roemer (R.) is talking about getting in. That might sound bad, but he could actually cause a two-Republican runoff, since right now he polls just ahead of both John and Kennedy. The Dems are hurt by the presence of a black candidate at the bottom of the ballot, but I forget his name. You've got to like the chances here. GOP +1

Illinois- You've got it right, toss-up, very winnable for Ryan. And it's Barack Obama. But hey, don't forget this is Illinois. DEM +1

Colorado- I'm afraid Salazar is the prohibitive favorite. We still need to learn more about this Coors guy, but I've written this one off. DEM +1

Oklahoma- Coburn will win, if he gets the nomination. NO CHANGE

CA- write this one off. NO CHANGE

Wisconsin- Forget it. NO CHANGE

Add:
Pennsylvania: Specter is not invincible, as Jon Corzine has been pointing out. Still, the race becomes more interesting if Toomey wins and becomes a toss-up. NO CHANGE

RESULT: Republicans net two seats, maybe three.