Replies

Thanks, Steve. Do you know what are the chances of Clarke actually joining the GOP?

"While it would collect the few "straight-ticket" Republican votes left in the district, far more people simply select the straight-Democratic ticket and give voting no more thought (note; in a general election one can select a "straight-party" ticket in Wisconsin and override it for individual offices)."

But I have to believe that Wisconsin voters aren't *that* averse to ticket-splitting, even with straight-ticket voting being available. In 2000, Kleczka won reelection easily, even with Bush carrying his CD. Ryan won his race, even with Gore winning the CD. Tammy Baldwin won with only like 52% while Gore got like 65% in the CD. And Obey and Kind won comfortably in districts where Gore beat Bush by no more than 2% or so. If Clarke is running against a liberal extremist who froths at the mouth and advocates gay marriage and stuff like that, he just might be able to get the 30% of the black vote, 50% of the Hispanic vote and 60% of the Anglo vote he would need to pull off the upset.

Thanks, Steve. Do you know what are the chances of Clarke actually joining the GOP?

About the same as him joining the DPW; zero.

The 2000 election results, with the notable exception of Tammy Baldwin, reflect the power of incumbency. The old 1st Congressional District (Paul Ryan), for example, had the union/Democrat strongholds of Racine, Kenosha, Janesville and Beloit (the last got traded to Baldwin's district in exchange for the emerging Repulican stronghold in southern Waukesha/Milwaukee counties).

Baldwin's situation in 2000 is unique in that while an incumbent, she is as openly far left as anyone can go. That plays exceptionally well in Madison, but doesn't play as well in the countryside (indeed, John Sharpless carried each county except Dane, where Madison is, in 2000). As a note, that pattern was not repeated in 2002 by Ron Greer.