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My top 10 races to watch:

1)Illinois - seat that is almost certain to switch parties, especially if Hynes wins the nomination. He's run and won statewide previously and will have the money and party machine behind him. I like Jack Ryan but it would be a minor miracle for him to hold this seat.

2)Georgia - not quite as certain as Illinois but it's getting there. Republicans have three big-name candidates in Johnny Isakson, Mac Collins, and Herman Cain. Either of the three should be the favorite to win unless the Dems magically find a big-time candidate.

3)South Carolina - its looking like DeMint versus Tenenbaum. While I expect it to be hotly contested, the Repubican slant of the state gives DeMint the edge.

4)North Carolina - Burr versus Bowles or Blue, most likely Bowles. Burr has the edge in fundraising and party support. Bowles is rich and has better name recognition. The state favors the GOP, especially in a presidential year. Advantage Burr.

5)Florida - a wide open free-for-all that will be fun to watch, Dems seems to have the bigger-name candidates at this point led by Deutsch and Penelas. McCollum is the arbitrary GOP frontrunner at this point. Let's hope he does a better job this time around if that is the case. A true tossup at this point.

6)Alaska - it's sad to say but this seat is very much in play. Knowles is the best candidate they best could have found. Murkowski has limited experience and the smear of cronyism against her. She will have cash and ANWR on her side. I say this is more or less a tossup that ever so slightly favors Murkowski.

7)Oklahoma - just appeared on the radar screen with Nickles retiring. Looks like it will be Carson versus Humphreys. You give the edge to Humphreys based on the make-up of the state and the fact that its a presidential year, but Carson should not be underestimated. He is one of the dangerous Dems that talks right, votes left, and nobody seems to notice.

8)Pennsylvania - a tossup if Toomey wins the nomination, strong advantage Specter is he is the nominee. Hoeffel isn't that great of a candidate but they could have done worse.

9)Washington - Nethercutt versus Murray. Dunn would have been better but Nethercutt is a top-flight candidate in terms of experience and fundraising. Much has been written about Nethercutt's underdog status in this race, but I feel he has a chance if Murray gives him something to work with, i.e. she opens her mouth. Bush must maintain his campaign in the state and pull in 46-47% for Nethercutt of have a real shot. This race gets my vote to be Georgia 2002 all over again with Nethercutt making a late surge due to some gaffe or controversy caused by Murray.

10)California - it may be a stretch we'll see. Former Sec. of State Bill Jones is probably the best positioned candidate right now to take on Boxer. He's run and won statewide before (the last Republican to do so prior to Arnold) and has solid conservative credentials. Must fundraise like a madman and be willing to take Boxer to task for her extremist positions on most issues. He seems to be more Tom McClintock than Matt Fong and that is why I give him a shot.

The GOP missed several opportunities this cycle. Arkansas, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisonsin, and New York could have been made races if the right candidates had stepped up. The Dems probably could make a strong run agaisnt Bunning in Kentucky and Bond in Missouri but haven't been able to field good challengers as of yet.

10)California -

totally wrong on Illinois. This seat is up for grabs with no favorite. Turnout will win it. Who ever gets his supporters to the polls on election day wins. That means organization wins.

If Republicans cannot put together a grassroots army, ala the Moral Majority army of '94, the Republicans defeat themselves, not the Dems.

Remember nobody gave Fitz a chance in '98.

I think wisconsin will be the georgia suprise in '04.