Posted on 08/12/2025 9:45:11 PM PDT by delta7
Tell that to Musk.
It looks like he is the only game in town right now.
Am I good at dreaming? Some of my colleagues called me visionary.
Speculation? Nope. We know a lot about our neighbors in the solar system, the engineering challenges, and how we can accomplish what we need to.
I also have also been a businessman having started six companies. My son runs my manufacturing company in Houston now.
I have observed that the science fiction writers first have visions, e.g., Jules Verne writing about submarines and nuclear power long before they were feasible.
Then, you get practical engineers making visions a reality.
What I presented to those executives was not a firm project with budgets and schedules. It was a vision for the future.
Ad astra
Having spent most of my career in Downey, I could write a long article on what went wrong with Shuttle.
Short version: If you increase requirements without increasing the budget you increase risk. We lost two birds and crews.
“We know a lot about our neighbors in the solar system, the engineering challenges, and how we can accomplish what we need to.”
I think you are overestimating what we know vs what we think we know.
If you worked in business you know everything needs to be field tested and stress tested to be confirmed as valid.
We learn the most from our mistakes—and in this field we are just getting started—have a lot of mistakes ahead of us—and unfortunately many of them will lead to fatalities.
The human race these days is spoiled—and may not handle exploration casualties very well.
After I started working at the Space Shuttle division I saw a friend from JPL at a party. I said, “I was expecting a bunch of brilliant thinkers. Instead I have met the most negative, critical bunch of pessimists ever”.
He explained, “We only need a few visionary geniuses. Then, you need an army of engineers who will find every possible flaw and risk which they proceed to solve. That’s why Rockwell is famous for quality. They are expensive but they fab, test to destruction, and finally have a bird that works right the first time “.
If you go back and look you will find that Shuttle looks a lot like Von Braun’s winged orbiters. One visionary plus over $25B and it flew the first mission.
Yes, colonizing and industrializing space will be incredibly expensive and risky. People will die. However, I worked for four retired astronauts and they were all willing to die for the cause.
The prize is an entire solar system for humanity.
“The prize is an entire solar system for humanity.”
There are so many other possible outcomes.
“The Expanse” science fiction series walks through one example of stuff that can go very very wrong.
The Expanse series looked interesting but I rarely watch TV
If there are humans involved, there will be problems!
There will be fights over resources or ideologies.
I just hope the alien visitors are not irritated by the violent upstarts.
One subject I did not touch on:
What happened to the indigenous people of the New World when they met Europeans?
Many died from disease and warfare
However, some adapted and learned from the more advanced civilization.
I think actual contact with aliens will be the same, I.e., incredibly dangerous but potentially a huge advancement.
Some of my native ancestors contributed to the genetics that made me what I am.
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