Posted on 08/26/2024 8:29:34 PM PDT by Lod881019
What harris bump? Shes maxxed out.
I have too and totally agree. Furthermore, this mimics many campaign insiders too; totally ignoring data they dont like. And they end up losing.
Harris’s new ad is full of lies.. Dr Gina on RAV, is disgusted with Harris.. Harris saying she is tough on border.. Prosecuted.. Gina said Harris thinks we are dumb and believe her lies..
Everything in the ad are lies..
The enemy is not stupid.
They will post to conservative blogs and do so in subtle ways. “He has to talk about issues. Enough of this other crap and insults.”
For about 200 years negative campaigning has won. You might want to repeat that. It wins. It moves the needle.
As to polls, I pound on this often. Pollsters have a model of who they think will turn out. They make 1000 phone calls or 2000 phone calls or texts or invites to websites or whatever. It takes that many samples to be able to fill the model of X/Y Dem/GOP (and just because something says more Dems than GOP that does not mean oversampled). X/Y Men/Women. X/Y/Z Race.
That’s their model. They want respondents that fit that ratio and they have to make that many phone calls to get a total sample of 600 or so that fits the model. Once they have the 600 or so, they only then look at the preference of candidate and add them up.
So a pollster can move the needle by changing the X/Y mix in the model. No one has to have changed their minds. Only the pollster changed his mind — about, say, how many women are going to show up vs men or any of the other parameters.
The pollster won’t have any idea. They changed their models when Biden was removed. There was no groundswell of support for Harris. They merely changed the totals of the ratios. No One Changed Their Minds. Only the pollster did for his model.
There are more Independents voting this year than ever before, per Forbes January survey (that none of the pollsters are using). Independents don’t care about abortion, particularly. Certainly not about taxes and spending.
Independents are populists. They are drawn to the anti Swamp Trump perspective. Vance has only 2 years in politics at any level. This is NEVER talked about because the media is terrified of the perspective as is the Dems and GOPe.
Oh, and btw, every single poll out there, even with their problems with modeling, says 95/5 Dem support for Harris and 95/5 GOP support for Trump. The GOPe has been erased. The Never Trumpers have had 4 yrs to try to undo populism and they have failed.
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