Posted on 10/09/2022 12:18:55 PM PDT by marcusmaximus
Why in the Hell are these people thinking that they can blame Putin for all the sabotage? It’s like they think he’s Barney Fife. Did he shoot his own foot on purpose? There is no f ing way Putin would make holes in his pipeline.
Russia is too weak economically to dominate that way. Russia is too weak militarily to defeat Ukraine or NATO. Russia has used hybrid war the last 8 years in Ukraine. Why take insignia off soldiers and deny they are your soldiers? Russia did. Putin is Bolshevik liar. Born and bred KGB. Legitimizing hybrid warfare on infrastructure is clearly a reason to “make holes in his pipeline.”
Ah, but would the Russian hardliners do just enough for Russia to be able to “justify” further escalation in the way of attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure that the Geneva Convention outlaws, such as blowing up dams without a very compelling military reason to do so?
Only 1/3 of the bridge was targeted.
Even for the time of the attack, the traffic seems VERY light. (Keep in mind the considerable foreshortening of the view by the camera rear of the truck.) The traffic is much less than the quite rural region interstate highways around me at a similar time. The remaining roadway would appear more than capable of handling present vehicle traffic, esp. if controlled so that priority traffic gets, well, priority.
The most critical portion of the bridge would be the railway. It was not hit and it appears the presence of the rail cars was coincidence: The blast did set a few rail cars on fire, but apparently their fire did not at least immediately weaken the rail bridge portion enough to put it out of use. Granted, it is possible that hidden weakening occurred and long term fatigue then could well become an issue. But, then you have an almost normal maintenance & repair job merely moved up in time.
Summary: Not a devastating blow and possibly not intended to be. (Also see below.)
Vehicles going onto the Kerch bridge are scanned for explosives. This was a pretty sizeable blast: It takes such to take down a section of a major bridge from a vehicle on the roadway, even if well positioned. So if Ukraine managed to sneak a large truck bomb onto the bridge, we are looking at a major Russian security fiasco.
Then again, if the security was compromised and that was known, why not go with a really big bomb? Fill up a semi with ~45,000 lbs. of fertilizer bomb and “give ‘em a dose of real fun”, to quote Heinlein...!
Russia is saying both Ukrainian and Russian elements were involved in the attack. That is VERY interesting. Justification to crack down harder on dissent at home too.
OTOH, some of the people analyzing the videos make a pretty good case the explosion actually occurred slightly behind and to the right of the truck (outside side of the bridge) as viewed from behind. Slowing down the vids, after several viewings I think these people may be on to something. But if that’s right, while it makes internal Russian conflict less likely as a source of the attack, it opens up a lot of other questions.
There are more questions than answers here unless one is a propagandist or a sucker for the propaganda from one side or the other.
How the hell is it going to work if you actually get a vote representing Zaporizhzhia Oblast as it was in 2021? (Check the last few census including the last Soviet census B4 you answer, please.) That would utterly blow up Russia's strategic (not just military) goals, which are what's really behind this dust up, not some disgruntled ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine.
Now we’re getting into Mouse That Roared territory. If this keeps up, Russia will lose and we’ll be sending them money so they can get back on their feet.
When I look at the number of high level Russians dying in mysterious “accidents”, I think it’s quite obvious there are power struggles in the Tsar’s “court” that make anything we see here in the USA (yes, including the Clinton family stuff) look like kindergarten antics.
Now, unless its typical Russian “stir the pot” agitprop to get NATO members in conflict with each other, or, legitimizing hybrid warfare on infrastructure as you say... Though the Nordstream pipelines are kinda moot anyway, at least for a good while, my guess is Pooty probably would not bother popping the Nordstream pipelines. Some sort of concession regarding them could be a part of eventual negotiations.
However, a group at Gazprom might well be really PO’d at Pooty & his pals: The Gazprom execs were all set for an incredibly lucrative gas business with Europe for a long time. I could see them sending a pig down the pipelines to blow ‘em and then make it look like their new internal enemies did it. Spite can result in some pretty crazy stuff.
- Crimean Bridge is back in operation - further repairs are required but road and rail traffic resumes;
- Western media notes the US is out of ammunition to send Ukraine and that US allies have even less;
- Nations like France have reached the limits of what they can send in terms of heavy weapons;
- Regional weather and subsequent mud is limiting the mobility of ground forces on both sides, giving the advantage to Russia which possess a larger air force, more drones, and long-range weapons indifferent to ground conditions;
- Ukrainian forces are losing ground in Bakhmut, indicating Ukrainian forces are already overextended - a situation that will only worsen in time;
- Russian forces are preserving their men and equipment and will soon be reinforced by an additional 300,000 troops;
"By the way, it is not so easy to enter the Crimean bridgeAt the entrances there are stationary ST-6035 inspection radio-technical complexes of the Directorate of Departmental Security of the Russian Ministry of Transport. They are also check cars for explosives."
Russia bragged about the types of defenses and security around the bridge. So if it was the truck loaded with explosives, how did it get on the bridge past security, and how was it detonated?
According to the Daily Mail...
Sergey Maslov, ‘independent minded’ judge, was in the black Cadillac.
He’s been involved in cases linked to Putin. If he did die in the explosion that’s one hell of a bit of convenient timing.
This bridge attack has highly suspicious coincidences and accidents for accident and coincidence.
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