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No, we are not headed toward war because the US, NATO, and Russia all want to avoid it. And even as Putin threatens war in dire terms, ending or even just pausing the Ukraine conflict would provide relief for Russia that a war would not. Indeed, with many Russian troops already shirking combat, there is a fair chance that key elements of the Russian military would refuse to go to war with the West.

Yes, the theater of politics and intense news coverage have led to a lot of loose talk of regime change by people who ought to know better. Nevertheless, no matter what is said in public, sober analysis by experts makes clear that Putin has staked his regime on the Ukraine war, with potentially catastrophic consequences for Russia.

The Russian military continues to struggle and is unlikely to generate even a tactical victory against Ukraine. A clear defeat for Russia is most likely. The growing impact of sanctions and impending military defeat of the Russia could provoke a breakaway by the Chechens aiming at a Muslin emirate in the Caucasus, with perhaps even a civil war in Russia. Putin's exit and a new Russian government -- regime change -- is needed, not just for Ukraine's sake but for the survival of Russia as an organized state.

Propaganda works.

And there is a MASSIVE propaganda campaign, right here in the US. The CIA is allowed to fund propaganda on US soil now. So is DOD.

Ukraine is also famous for the most contacts with Congress each year. And Congress can be, and is, bribed. Family jobs; family wealth.

Finally, the military contractors and retired generals on their boards (War, Inc) stand to make a fortune. Heck, they already are. Each “Billion for Ukraine” has a big cut to them.

“Who gains?”

Everyone, except us.

“Nock predicted in 1935 that a new world war would start in the summer of 1939, not because Hitler was unstoppable in his evil schemes, but because the powers controlling public opinion and public expenditure in the West would also benefit from a war.”...

“Ask yourself: Would a diversion from poor economic conditions at home be of any help to professional politicians in Washington? How about an excuse for increasing government power? Just consider that the result of every war in modern history—in the winning nation—has been a transfer of social and economic power away from the people and toward the State: Higher taxes, more laws, more control over the daily lives of citizens. More government. That is what war does—when you win. And if you’re going to lose, who cares?

Do I think that our government is really so evil and incompetent that they’d get us into a war just so they remain in power (and increase their power)? Of course I do. They won’t realize the magnitude of the war until it’s too late. As is traditional. ...”

Yup. But the “I support the latest thing!” crowd feelz good about themselves.