Posted on 12/11/2021 7:46:04 AM PST by Jan_Sobieski
We know what happens when groups of one hundred people who get confirmed covid. We lose 1.6 percent of them.(n=0.016)
That is a separate issue from the prevalence of the disease across the entire population. This includes people who will never get the disease,those who got the disease and never knew it, those who got the disease and recovered, and those who died from it. The overall fatality rate for the entire population is 0.0031=N or 0.031 percent. That is why I oppose the politicians who have distorted the facts and have turned our nation upside down over it. The Swedes had the right idea in how to handle it.
Now, what all that has to do with slamming me over global warming I have no idea. I oppose the politicians who are pushing that fake narrative as well. You can take your insinuations to the living God and ask him if you think you have accused me truthfully!
The amusing thing is that you place so much faith in statistics based on data that is basically garbage. There are incentives for doctors and hospitals to call every death a Covid death. Count the money... How do I know this from personal experience? My brother-in-law died very early in the “pandemic”. At that point in time tests were not available to confirm Covid except for celebrities, politicians, and health care workers. But just before he stopped breathing, he had a cough.
His is death was labeled “presumptive Covid” and he was counted in our state as a Covid death along with others who had been stabbed, shot, or had been in motorcycle crashes. His death was less of an overreach than most of those, but he did have an inoperable cancerous brain tumor and was in hospice care. The doctors and hospital got more money for calling his demise a Covid death instead of a death from brain cancer. They may have been slightly ahead of their time, but the same game has now been played over and over and over again.
Have you ever heard the term “garbage in, garbage out”? The reason I assumed that you are also a global warming believer is that the same errors in reasoning are present in your reasoning that we find in groups of global warming believers. And we know what happens when groups of one hundred people who react a certain way when exposed to propaganda are exposed to similar propaganda intended to manipulate them in another area. We lose 99.6 percent of them. (n=99.60)
Given this fact, I believe that our almighty God might cut me some slack if you are actually one of the .4 percent, N=0.04 percent who believe all the statistical garbage associated with Covid but not the same type of statistical garbage associated with "global warming".
I would point out also that the situation with Covid is dynamic. This means that it is changing all of the time and it varies greatly from one locale to the other. The fatality rate from the original CCP/Fauci gain of function form of Covid has little relationship to the fatality rate of the current prevalent strains.
You cannot apply a constant to a dynamic situation and expect it to have any accurate predictive value. You seem to be a reasonable, intelligent person, but you have a belief system that is being led astray by logical fallacies.
Of course it’s dynamic and the numbers will change when we get better numbers. The fatality numbers I’m using are what we are seeing in Central Virginia as of right now...other localities’ info may vary. I’m reasonably sure of our local numbers but I agree with your point about the fluidity of the total numbers.
There are so many problems with using the number that you have provided to predict any one person's risk from Covid. First “cases” has an unknown relationship to the actual number of people who have been infected. From the beginning a large percentage of people who have been infected are asymptomatic or have symptoms that are so minor that they have had no need to seek medical attention. World-o-meter claims that there have been 51 million “cases” of Covid in the United States as of today. But I just heard Senator Rand Paul say that over 100 million people have recovered from Covid and have natural immunity. Others have said that this number is likely twice this amount.
World-o-meter claims that there have been 819 thousand deaths related to Covid. But we have no idea how accurate this number is. The vast majority of the people who are counted as Covid deaths have serious co-morbidities like my brother-in-law who had inoperable brain cancer. There are people who made the list who come from an entire spectrum of how much Covid contributed to their demise from not at all to completely. The number 819 thousand might as well have been completely made up.
So by World-o-meter’s numbers the death rate 819 thousand divided by 51 million we get 0.016 or the 1.6% number that you have been touting. But it is completely meaningless in whole or in part because the rate is always changing and as I just explained the two numbers it is based on are not clearly defined. Garbage in, garbage out.
I’ll say again for every 100 people who are unlucky to get Covid 19 we see 1.6 persons die.(mostly older with morbidities). Working in an ICU as I do of course we’ll see the sick ones die more than the average person will in their everyday life). The mortality numbers are pretty set. I hate the way the media makes it sound like millions are suddenly dying. They are not. Yet the ones I see die are mostly unvaxxed as well. We know this from their medical histories that we take.. Localities vary! Co-morbidities can make things worse.
The other numbers about population spreads, treatments, strains ect belong in the “toss up” political salad that everyone is involved with these days.
As demonstrated clearly in my last post the number 1.6% comes directly from World-o-meter. It is based on garbage numbers. If the numbers from the ICU that you work in seem similar that is almost certainly confirmation bias on your part. There is no way that your hospital is able to keep track of the number of cases in your community and divide that by the number of deaths in your ICU and come up with a meaningful number.
My mother and my wife are both retired nurses and I spent 25 years transporting ALS patients to emergency rooms. None of us could come up with a percentage of people we assisted who died from any specific ailment and you obviously cannot either. It is silly to think that you could... you can give us your impression which I find interesting, and I am glad that you are participating here. And I thank you for your service, but you are letting your personal biases get in the way when you cite nonsensical numbers.
Clearly, we both have firsthand experiences with Covid and the vaccinations and both of us have personal biases which help form our impressions. I will tell you that every place that my wife worked and was a department head I spent a great deal of time volunteering. I spent a lot of hours driving people to get their flu shots and other vaccinations because they clearly saved lives. Some of the larger places she worked at would lose two dozen people in a month during a bad flu season. Somehow this never became front page news. I am still not sure that Covid here was ever worse than a bad flu season and that any “excess deaths” are mostly caused by intentionally corrupted data collection system protocols. We get glimpses of reality when foreign sources of information somehow make it past the unprecedented media, big tech and political blockade of any info that contradicts the official narrative. Before this all started, I would never have believed such a thing was possible.
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