This is a very fun time of the season each year for college football and 2021 offers a very interesting inflection point in the college football game of the future.
To friends, I have maintained that GA has all along been the best team in CFB ... clearly ... and yet now I want to SELL HIGH. Its two big early wins (@Clemson, Arkansas) do not with time seem as impressive and even this week’s Auburn win is against a team that just lost to an LSU team that is way underperforming. Looking forward, the next two games are vs SEC East teams FL and UK that are good enough to keep the SEC East from seeming an embarrassment.
GA now stands alone as the best in CFB, but on any given Saturday even the best can lose. There is a lot of regular season football left; it would be modestly generous to give GA a 65-35 chance of running that table. Then they meet AL in the SEC championship game.
What to say about Alabama!? I start every season betting against them, even as I am the first to admit that they nearly lap the rest of college football every year in talent, depth, coaching staff, resources and so much more. Every single aspect of their program is crazy optimized. Set aside Bama’s top 2-3 freshmen each year, and what remains is often still best in country in number and average 247 player rating. The first of two big problems is that everyone knows this and everyone thinks that Alabama just can’t lose. It’s not their fault, but they start every year with wildly exaggerated expectations.
Their second problem is that the Alabama optimization model has always had a ceiling; and the sport is changing so much so fast that it cannot last against rapidly ascendant innovations coming from every direction. Alabama needs its huge recruiting classes because so many of its stars leave early for the NFL. and there is only so much playing time for all of the recruits that come to Alabama. If there were a measure of average 247 rating of the players actually ON THE FIELD, Alabama would still be best in country, but I believe folks would be shocked at how much more level the playing field turns out to be in 2021 than, say, 2014; and not just in the top ranks but also for programs like Iowa, Oregon, A&M and Florida; and with schools like Kentucky rising to the point that on any given day they just might beat anyone.
The transfer protocol is revolutionary, I think beyond what anyone understands. And Ryan Day at Ohio State is crushing that model with no other program in even a distant second. Naysayers may think that this ends up being a wash, with every Joe Burrow (or Jameson Williams) transferring out cancelling a Justin Fields (or Trey Sermon) coming in. This thinking, though, is exactly backwards. That two-directional movement across the very best programs is exactly why a Quinn Ewers chooses Ohio State, not only to provide him with options but to ensure that the the AMAZING QB room in front of him will clear out to make room if he ends up as good as advertised. And to ensure that the WR room gives him the country’s best targets.
Add in other earthquake-like changes — conferences restructuring, NIL$ for players, recruitment of high school players from overseas, data analytics, better and better coaching, the likely expansion of the playoffs to 6, 8 or 12 teams, ... These are interesting times leading to a lot of disruption.
LSU and Clemson are in for a rough patch. Is their recent good fortune due to great and durable programs or a QB-related blip (JBurrow and TLawrence)? It really is looking like the latter for now.
The B1G is on the rise for the simple reason that they now dominate so many big markets — money talks! The fact that programs like Rutgers and Indiana no longer embarrass doesn’t make the news, but this matters. A rising B1G tide lifts all boats.
The PAC-12, Big12 and ACC are each a mess for different reasons. Conference realignments are not even at the half-way point; and for this reason, I believe, conference championships are not as important as they once were relative to the college football playoff. In five years, when super conferences settle in, the momentum will begin shifting back to conferences, again in substantial part because of $$$$.
Those are my thoughts. Not trying to provoke any arguments. And interested in what others think.
Wouldn’t it be interesting to read the transcript of the Saban speech to his team after the game.
“You are all grounded in your dorms with a 6PM curfew for the next week”.
Don’t sleep on SMU, they’re unbeaten and still play Cincinnati.
And then there’s UTSA at 6-0.