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Trump declared winner by The Supremes sometime between Thanksgiving and Hanukkah ... 👍 🇺🇸 🙏
Posted on 10/13/2020 6:12:34 AM PDT by cincinnati65
we were in Madison County Va yesterday and all Trump signs in the yards.
But I agree Va is pretty much screwed because of the ghettoes and govvies.
Trump declared winner by The Supremes sometime between Thanksgiving and Hanukkah ... 👍 🇺🇸 🙏
The real question is how many people are going to change their vote from 2016 to 2020 either way.
Imho that will be a _very_ small number, probably less than two percent of voters.
That is why the polls are laughable on their face.
So, once we get past looking at idiotic polls, the question is which way the one or two percent change will go.
I believe it will break towards the incumbent President.
Biden is a stunningly weak candidate, and most young people hate him—really hate him, so they are not motivated to vote for him. They also hate snail mail in general, so they don’t want to vote by mail.
Law and order is big. We will find out how big soon enough, but I believe it will persuade some wavering suburbanites that Democrats are hazardous to their wealth and health. I expect that to effect some close Congressional elections as well.
Taxes are another factor. Do the swing voters want higher taxes? We will find out soon enough, but I believe the answer is “no”.
Those are some of the reasons I am confident about the President’s re-election, and I believe the margin of victory will be adequate to overcome Democratic fraud.
It's America that's on the ballot. PDJT is just the placeholder.
Schadenfreude ping.
For me, this election has a 1994 feel.
I try to get a sense based on where the candidates are stumping, as well. I thought Minnesota was an interesting outreach for Trump, but now he seems to be transitioning to shoring up the more "toss up" type states. Biden moving into Ohio is a concern for me.
Things like that.
I hope so...
If not for these polls, would anyone doubt for a second that Trump wins easily? Of course not.
The incumbent always wins except in rare situations - like Carter being outmatched by Ronald Reagan in 1980 - and like Bush having 20 million Republican votes stolen from him by Ross Perot in 1992.
No one can seriously say Joe Biden is the Ronald Reagan of 2020 - and there is no third party.
It is clearly the polls causing any doubts.
So, let’s look at the polls.
I’m not a mathematician, but I’m 68 and I’ve seen math used dishonestly often enough. I remember during the eighties the Democrats and fake news trying to vilify oil companies by showing headlines like “Oil Giants See 300% Profit”.
Now, if they had said “growth in profits”’ they might have been right - because the year to year CHANGE in profit rate was from a paltry .5% to a paltry 1.5%!- a 300% increase. But their intention was to deceive.
This is happening with the polls.
Can a mathematician explain to me why a pollster would want a weighted sample rather than a random sample? It makes no sense to me.
If you want to know which candidate has more popular support, wouldn’t you simply get a random sample of the population large enough, and random enough to represent the population as a whole?
You might say - that fails to account for the fact that some people are likely to vote and some unlikely. Fair enough, so ask questions to determine their likelihood of voting, then present the results of that group as well.
You might say (and here is where you lose me) - if you know 40% of voters are Democrats, yet your random sample only included 30% Democrats, you must weight the poll results to correct for the error.
I’m not a mathematician, but I sometimes know when I’m being bullshitted by one.
If you “know” 40% of the voters are Democrats, yet your “random” sample only includes 30% Democrats - NEWSFLASH! - one of your assumptions is wrong:
Either your sample wasn’t random enough or large enough to be representative, or 40% of voters aren’t really Democrats.
Don’t “correct“ it by weighting it! Either except the uncorrected results, or toss it out and start over!
Like I said, I’m not a mathematician - so if someone wants to tell me where I’m wrong, I am eager to learn.
Anecdotal info....
There’s an App where people post random questions. Responses are totally anonymous. Various categories available to post. These results were “Over 18 yrs” old.
(However, there’s no way to know how many responses to each question.)
Question:
Trump voters only: Are you openly admitting that you’re going to vote for Trump? Or do you have to keep it secret from friends/family/co-workers to maintain peace?
Category: Politics
Result:
86% Openly admit I am voting Trump
14% I have to keep it secret
Question:
Trump voters only: In your opinion, based on people you personally talk to, are there more secret Trump voters than in 2016, or less?
Category: Politics
Result:
92% More secret Trump voters now
8% Less secret Trump voters now
Question:
Blacks / African Americans only: Who are you voting for?
Category: Trending News
Result:
38% Biden
62% Trump
Category: Politics
Result:
38% Biden
62% Trump
Category: Sports
Result:
25% Biden
75% Trump
Category: Pop Culture
Result:
33% Biden
67% Trump
Category: Music
Result:
12% Biden
88% Trump
Category: Family & Parenting
Result:
29% Biden
71% Trump
Category: Entertainment
Result:
50% Biden
50% Trump
Question:
For people who vited for CLINTON in 2016, who are you voting for in 2020?
Category: Espanol
Result:
33% Biden
67% Trump
Category: Beauty
Result:
14% Biden
86% Trump
Category: Family & Parenting
Result:
43% Biden
57% Trump
Category: Trending News
Result:
50% Biden
50% Trump
Category: Politics
Result:
42% Biden
58% Trump
There are 3 days left on this 7-day poll.
At this point, I'm more concerned about international interference (one example: China invades Taiwan before the election.)
We are going to win in a landslide.
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