Posted on 07/23/2020 6:41:03 AM PDT by cuban leaf
This is the problem. I have hoped they would just nucleate around the cities they are fleeing instead of changing rural America. But no, they have to spread like a cancer bringing their affluence to areas that have none changing the economy for people who can’t join them.
All those office buildings? They become low income housing and homeless shelters.
Ask your wife whether you're printing as you go through several natural motions.
Since they are anonymous here, I don’t mind sharing numbers. :)
I like to share my RE tax numbers - 32 acres and a nice house and huge barn, not to mention two streams, two hollers and two knobs: $250 a year.
In places like Seattle, nobody owns property. They rent it from the government.
Vanities belong in chat. Just saying.
Yes. The cities will not “dry up”. But there may be a VERY serious adjustment in rents and businesses in some, an only a serious adjustment in others.
And what does this protend for the commercial real estate market??? A major bust in my opinion.
What does your daughter make per year?
I wonder if this will make small to mid-sized cities to be desirable and the big cities will shrink to their core, more or less. And maybe rather than a city becoming huge and unmanageable, new cities will pop up and small cities will grow to mid-sized No one will want cities to grow beyond a certain size.
And what does this protend for the commercial real estate market??? A major bust in my opinion.
I work for a large company that rents a LOT of space in downtown Louisville. Not only will we be working from home for the foreseeable future, but this WFH thing is working out so well that the company is wondering why they needed all that space in the first place.
That is my take. Large cities become very difficult to manage. One of the big advantages of small cities (under 100,000) is that they are still in that small town sweet spot of “everybody knows evrybody”. At least, full anonymity is more difficult. It’s harder to get away with stuff when people recognize you or your car.
Of course, if towns are too small and bereft of opportunity, there are drug problems.
He says of his son: “ They were able to come here because his job allowed him to Work From Home (WFH) full time - and still earn Seattle wages.”
The he quotes his SIL: .”He said he has hired his last Seattle employee because they are simply too expensive.”
Contradictions aside, he has had a blinding glimpse of the obvious.
I was raised in a rural county and now live in a small town with very little quaintness which is over rated. Decent school, plenty of churches, a DQ, and neighbors armed to the teeth.
A friend called to say the have new neighbors from Queens. The family is utterly shocked by kids playing unsupervised, open garage doors (they probably have not seen the garage TVs and refrigerators), and friendly caring neighbors. They will not understand why we will insist that they arm themselves.
Unemployment rates:
Massachusetts: 17.4
New Jersey: 16.6
New York: 15.7
California: 14.9
Michigan: 14.8
Illinois: 14.6
Missouri: 7.9
Wyoming: 7.6
Georgia: 7.5
N Carolina: 7.5
Alabama: 7.5
Montana: 7.1
Nebraska: 6.7
Maine: 6.6
Oklahoma: 6.6
N Dakota: 6.1
Idaho: 5.6
Utah: 5.1
Kentucky: 4.3
Just noticed the “vanity”. So my comments are for you. Over all a decent vanity.
We enjoyed our visits to Seattle back 10 or more years ago.
Duke’s Clam Chowder House was usually our first stop.
Yes. The contradiction is there. However, one is about now and the other is about what is to come. The guys that are able to WFH and keep their big city wages now are the true winners here, but they will be a dying breed. Some will keep those golden handcuffs as long as they want. Others will actually be let go, but usually because their companies fold. Companies rarely do wage decreases. It generally happens through attrition.
Interesting trend.
One thing that deserves mention. The high salaries in the cities are generally based on the high costs of living nearby. Companies aren’t paying it based on the goodness of their hearts.
If the employees aren’t tethered to the city, then it won’t take long for the companies to realize they don’t need to pay urban wages for remote rural workers. And there are plenty of us rural people who could do a lot of city peeps’ jobs if we were able to do them remotely.
Something to keep in mind to those considering purchasing land and a home based on what you’re making now. Best to look around at the area you’re moving to and seeing what your job would pay if you had to work at a local business before you sign a mortgage based on your current arrangement. We may have lower costs in the country, but we also have lower salaries for the same jobs if the company is local.
A big downside to all this, is after corps have outsourced to us country folk working remotely, it’s only a small step to outsource offshore remotely...
A large amount of “office” work can be done at home, but the number of “hands on” workers far out distances office workers...Most all the products that we buy to use, eat, drive, look at, play with, are made by blue collar workers at the site...
Also, the liberal, democrat minded people who actually do move from “downtown” in to the suburbs or the rural areas do NOT change their voting habits...They still vote THEIR way whether in cities or the country...
We still love to, every time we go there, go to Ivars, buy a bunch of fries and feed the seagulls. :)
All true.
There is another aspect: I’ve got friends here that have a pretty nice place to live and have been working at the same place for decades, for sub-$20 an hour wages. If all the city folk move here, even with “lower tier” wages, they will earn a lot more than these people, driving them out regarding housing prices. I don’t really know what can be done about that.
It kinda reminds me of the implementation of a higer minimum wage. It only helps those that see an immediate wage increase and no cut in hours - until the economy catches up to the “new floor” and they are back where they were, relatively speaking.
i.e. it’s great for the early adapters, but eventually the whole thing will be sort of leveled off. Cheap places will become more expensive, and the local wages will have to increase to match, while expensive places will become cheaper, with the lower wages to match.
But I’ll say this: I think cities steal people’s soul. Getting millions of people out of megalopolises into 100k sized cities will make everything a little better - especially in the age of the internet, Amazon, etc. These places are just more “liveable” and “human friendly”.
IMO, of course.
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