Posted on 03/26/2020 5:42:10 AM PDT by impimp
Yes, Rev. Al., we much. ;)
CA. today 2600 cases with a 40 million population OMG the entire state is SHUT DOWN utter idiocy!! These are so many businesses that will never recover from this NEVER, most will be restaurants they run on a very small margin!! I owned restaurants my entire life and I would never have survived a 3 week shut down NO WAY!!!
Hi.
Not a thread hijack attempt...
There’s a thread on the forum that asks, “What is the most important question in America today?”
I know the answer. “Where can I get toilet paper, tacos and beer?”
5.56mm
You still scared, bro?
We have tested 500,000 people nation wide and we as of today have 76,000 positive tests!! OMG what a farce this has become so 430,000 have tested negative and our entire country is SHUT DOWN!!!
So, if you line up the respective initial date lines, then run the series for actual daily counts, you can compare & contrast the different growth curves. Of note is how both the US & Italy tracked pretty closely for the first 11 days, but then we see Italy take off (ratio).
Italy vs US (net NY)
Italy 60.5 IT v US USA-NY 310.9 Day Date Cum Total % Chg Daily Ratio Date Cum Total % Chg Daily 1 2/21/2020 1 1 1.0 2/29/2020 1 1 2 2/22/2020 2 100.0% 1 1.0 3/1/2020 2 100.0% 1 3 2/23/2020 3 50.0% 1 0.5 3/2/2020 6 200.0% 4 4 2/24/2020 7 133.3% 4 0.8 3/3/2020 9 50.0% 3 5 2/25/2020 10 42.9% 3 0.8 3/4/2020 12 33.3% 3 6 2/26/2020 12 20.0% 2 0.9 3/5/2020 14 16.7% 2 7 2/27/2020 17 41.7% 5 0.9 3/6/2020 18 28.6% 4 8 2/28/2020 21 23.5% 4 1.1 3/7/2020 19 5.6% 1 9 2/29/2020 29 38.1% 8 1.3 3/8/2020 22 15.8% 3 10 3/1/2020 34 17.2% 5 1.3 3/9/2020 26 18.2% 4 11 3/2/2020 52 52.9% 18 1.7 3/10/2020 31 19.2% 5 12 3/3/2020 79 51.9% 27 2.1 3/11/2020 38 22.6% 7 13 3/4/2020 107 35.4% 28 2.5 3/12/2020 42 10.5% 4 14 3/5/2020 148 38.3% 41 3.0 3/13/2020 49 16.7% 7 15 3/6/2020 197 33.1% 49 3.6 3/14/2020 54 10.2% 5 16 3/7/2020 233 18.3% 36 3.9 3/15/2020 59 9.3% 5 17 3/8/2020 366 57.1% 133 5.4 3/16/2020 68 15.3% 9 18 3/9/2020 463 26.5% 97 5.5 3/17/2020 84 23.5% 16 19 3/10/2020 631 36.3% 168 6.0 3/18/2020 106 26.2% 22 20 3/11/2020 827 31.1% 196 6.1 3/19/2020 136 28.3% 30 21 3/12/2020 1,027 24.2% 200 5.6 3/20/2020 183 34.6% 47 22 3/13/2020 1,266 23.3% 239 5.3 3/21/2020 238 30.1% 55 23 3/14/2020 1,441 13.8% 175 4.4 3/22/2020 329 38.2% 91 24 3/15/2020 1,809 25.5% 368 5.0 3/23/2020 359 9.1% 30 25 3/16/2020 2,158 19.3% 349 5.4 3/24/2020 399 11.1% 40 26 3/17/2020 2,503 16.0% 345 3.9 3/25/2020 644 61.4% 245
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch
They are just the recorded numbers, not hypothetical or "modeled" projections. Of course, you may choose to believe or not believe the numbers from China and Iran. These are just the daily updated recorded numbers.
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https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley
Aligning different regions from similar starting points is useful, IMHO.
You still retarded, bro?
How did that Virginia buffalo jump turn out for you?
But what is "reality"? Kabar is the first person I saw who brought up the question of regional CV specificity. That is, while there are certainly at risk groups/segments, perhaps the #1 key factor behind both CV infection rates & virulence are life styles and living standards. Which is why we're beginning to see a decent pattern emerge: Wuhan/Hubei, Milan/Lomardy, NYC/NY, and from the looks of it, now Madrid.
So, what would you conclude? Me, I note that Trump is going to be prioritizing counties. That's because we cannot extrapolate regionally specific factors like urban density, demographics, etc onto a broader population. That's where all the projection models went wrong. Take Milan and plot it across Italy and of course you'll get 1m deaths. Likewise the nursing home in Seattle, or now NYC.
The final analysis is going to suggest that everyone was (semi) right. Modelers in that the shit was going to take off if something wasn't immediately done (hence the 15 day order), and flu bros with respect to maybe net virulence wasn't 1-2% of the population.
Prison fo two ideas.
Essential in my opinion.
Thats the nice thing about graphs. Humans process images in a flash. A wall of numbers can give you a headache.
LOL!
“I’m in the camp that it is a serious virus for those who are at high risk, but that it was released as a coordinated attack to Federalize the EU and destroy Trump.”
________
With Trump more popular than ever and globalism on the ropes, I’d say it’s backfiring.
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