Flubros are right! Day 8 (Vanity for Flubros only)

www.freerepublic.com ^ | 26 March 2020 | impimp

[MayflowerMadam]

Yes, Rev. Al., we much. ;)

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

CA. today 2600 cases with a 40 million population OMG the entire state is SHUT DOWN utter idiocy!! These are so many businesses that will never recover from this NEVER, most will be restaurants they run on a very small margin!! I owned restaurants my entire life and I would never have survived a 3 week shut down NO WAY!!!

[M Kehoe]

Hi.

Not a thread hijack attempt...

There’s a thread on the forum that asks, “What is the most important question in America today?”

I know the answer. “Where can I get toilet paper, tacos and beer?”

5.56mm

[Repeal The 17th]

You still scared, bro?

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

We have tested 500,000 people nation wide and we as of today have 76,000 positive tests!! OMG what a farce this has become so 430,000 have tested negative and our entire country is SHUT DOWN!!!

[semantic]

Italy recorded their first CV death on 2/21, while the US was 2/29. Exponential math follows an initial series pattern regardless of population size. (Population limits comes into play later when saturation levels begin to be reached due to the "doubling effect".)

So, if you line up the respective initial date lines, then run the series for actual daily counts, you can compare & contrast the different growth curves. Of note is how both the US & Italy tracked pretty closely for the first 11 days, but then we see Italy take off (ratio).

Italy vs US (net NY)

		Italy	60.5		IT v US		USA-NY	310.9	
Day	Date	Cum Total	% Chg	Daily	Ratio	Date	Cum Total	% Chg	Daily
									
1	2/21/2020	1		1	1.0	2/29/2020	1		1
2	2/22/2020	2	100.0%	1	1.0	3/1/2020	2	100.0%	1
3	2/23/2020	3	50.0%	1	0.5	3/2/2020	6	200.0%	4
4	2/24/2020	7	133.3%	4	0.8	3/3/2020	9	50.0%	3
5	2/25/2020	10	42.9%	3	0.8	3/4/2020	12	33.3%	3
6	2/26/2020	12	20.0%	2	0.9	3/5/2020	14	16.7%	2
7	2/27/2020	17	41.7%	5	0.9	3/6/2020	18	28.6%	4
8	2/28/2020	21	23.5%	4	1.1	3/7/2020	19	5.6%	1
9	2/29/2020	29	38.1%	8	1.3	3/8/2020	22	15.8%	3
10	3/1/2020	34	17.2%	5	1.3	3/9/2020	26	18.2%	4
11	3/2/2020	52	52.9%	18	1.7	3/10/2020	31	19.2%	5
12	3/3/2020	79	51.9%	27	2.1	3/11/2020	38	22.6%	7
13	3/4/2020	107	35.4%	28	2.5	3/12/2020	42	10.5%	4
14	3/5/2020	148	38.3%	41	3.0	3/13/2020	49	16.7%	7
15	3/6/2020	197	33.1%	49	3.6	3/14/2020	54	10.2%	5
16	3/7/2020	233	18.3%	36	3.9	3/15/2020	59	9.3%	5
17	3/8/2020	366	57.1%	133	5.4	3/16/2020	68	15.3%	9
18	3/9/2020	463	26.5%	97	5.5	3/17/2020	84	23.5%	16
19	3/10/2020	631	36.3%	168	6.0	3/18/2020	106	26.2%	22
20	3/11/2020	827	31.1%	196	6.1	3/19/2020	136	28.3%	30
21	3/12/2020	1,027	24.2%	200	5.6	3/20/2020	183	34.6%	47
22	3/13/2020	1,266	23.3%	239	5.3	3/21/2020	238	30.1%	55
23	3/14/2020	1,441	13.8%	175	4.4	3/22/2020	329	38.2%	91
24	3/15/2020	1,809	25.5%	368	5.0	3/23/2020	359	9.1%	30
25	3/16/2020	2,158	19.3%	349	5.4	3/24/2020	399	11.1%	40
26	3/17/2020	2,503	16.0%	345	3.9	3/25/2020	644	61.4%	245

[Travis McGee]

I find this guy's daily graphs very helpful. This is from March 25.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch

They are just the recorded numbers, not hypothetical or "modeled" projections. Of course, you may choose to believe or not believe the numbers from China and Iran. These are just the daily updated recorded numbers.

[Grampa Dave]

.

[Travis McGee]

Another "actual numbers only" graphologist.

https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley

Aligning different regions from similar starting points is useful, IMHO.

[Travis McGee]

You still retarded, bro?

[Repeal The 17th]

How did that Virginia buffalo jump turn out for you?

[semantic]

IMO, anyone who is using actual CV deaths as their core metric is on the correct path. Everything else is just noise, intentionally or mistakenly used to create confusion and/or drive an agenda. So I don't think the graph data is an issue of believing comparisons of actual deaths now coming out of Madrid, but rather the ability to accept reality.

But what is "reality"? Kabar is the first person I saw who brought up the question of regional CV specificity. That is, while there are certainly at risk groups/segments, perhaps the #1 key factor behind both CV infection rates & virulence are life styles and living standards. Which is why we're beginning to see a decent pattern emerge: Wuhan/Hubei, Milan/Lomardy, NYC/NY, and from the looks of it, now Madrid.

So, what would you conclude? Me, I note that Trump is going to be prioritizing counties. That's because we cannot extrapolate regionally specific factors like urban density, demographics, etc onto a broader population. That's where all the projection models went wrong. Take Milan and plot it across Italy and of course you'll get 1m deaths. Likewise the nursing home in Seattle, or now NYC.

The final analysis is going to suggest that everyone was (semi) right. Modelers in that the shit was going to take off if something wasn't immediately done (hence the 15 day order), and flu bros with respect to maybe net virulence wasn't 1-2% of the population.

[wastoute]

“Prison fo two ideas.”

[wastoute]

Essential in my opinion.

[wastoute]

That’s the nice thing about graphs. Humans process images in a flash. A wall of numbers can give you a headache.

[BDParrish]

LOL!

[Ken H]

“I’m in the camp that it is a serious virus for those who are at high risk, but that it was released as a coordinated attack to Federalize the EU and destroy Trump.”

________

With Trump more popular than ever and globalism on the ropes, I’d say it’s backfiring.