Posted on 03/22/2020 6:02:52 PM PDT by gas_dr
I have reposted because the original post disappeared.
Moderator took it down for “no link.”
However, I thank you for your original research and contribution.
Ahhh, I probably didn’t put the studs in correctly, so I tried to fix it. If I need to do anything else, let me know.
Fascinating. It seems we really can’t count on anyone’s numbers except South Korea. Thanks for posting.
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Thank you so much!
Michigan cases climbing. More testing now has an effect on counts.
https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/coronavirus-tracker-what-michigan-needs-know-now
Interesting stats. Thanks for posting.
Maybe I'm missing something obvious or misinterpreting the summary (or it's what I suggest below)
If the top six countries are near or at or past peak (maybe that's not what you're saying,) then what would you say accounts for the Johns Hopkins non-China curve still looking exponential? Would you say 'because other countries that are newly contributing or still in exponential phase are dominating the curve right now?'
(I realize I could go do that math but I'm guessing you have an answer to that since you've got individual country day by day growth stats at hand.)
Certainly non-mainland-China-i.e.-rest-of-the-world looks like the growth rate is still accelerating.
Way to go keep it up. Also thanks for being up front of you thoughts but being as objective as you know how.
Based on this, and the deaths today (120), and a simple mathematical progression, I expect we will surpass the average annual fatality numbers for the common flu by the first or second week of April for Covid-19. In other words, I expect 20,000 people in the US to die of Covid-19 by the middle of April, equaling the average number killed for a whole year by the common flu.
Thank you for all the info you are sharing here on FR. My son is an intern at a NY hospital, so I have a very personal interest in all things COVID-19.
The U.K. Figures are correct according to the radio. (4000)
We haven’t even taken the same level of precautions as the rest of Europe or parts of the US, it will really kick off in the next week if it is going to.
I suspect we may be seeing the successful application of community mitigation procedures and medication based treatments to reduce the death rates.
Lets hope we see continued reduction in the rate of new cases, that would be a very good trend to have. But I'll settle for a continued reduction of the growth rate of the rate...
The numbers are unstable, I take the numbers at 2400 GMT to standardize. I expect revisions tomorrow. I believe that this will not approach the death rate of H1N1, but we will see I suppose. I stand by my data and judgment at this time
Many thanks for your analysis !!
Ok, thanks. I think unless we impede the rate, we are looking at 20,000 deaths by mid-April in the USA. I stand by that prediction. I hope I am wrong.
This is probably a dumb question, but why are they not calling it WARS (Wuhan Acute Respiratory Syndrome) or CARS (Chinese Acute Respiratory Syndrome)? Seems like a lot of these types of illnesses are named after the location where they originated. Is it because that would not be PC?
But, especially in the US, the number of cases is very noisy, because of the lack of testing, Do you have any analysis based on number of deaths?
I think given new treatment options and overall location on time line we will come up short of that. Nut I admire you for taking a stand, I hope you are wrong, but lets see...
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