Posted on 02/14/2020 9:45:49 AM PST by bolobaby
Check back in three weeks and tell me how many of the cohort of currently diagnosed people outside China are still alive, pretty please?
“Because conditions in communist China are absolutely great”
Actually medical facilities in most of China are very good. Doctors are hit and miss - you can buy your way through med school.
Did you not read the post? You didn’t, did you?
This is why I *specifically* compared to another time China (assholes!) lied to give some perspective.
But whatever. I think you are one of those guys who just wants to be contrarian on the internet for the purpose of puffing themselves up.
My post stands on it’s own.
Bring Out Your Dead
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the Bring Out Your Dead ping list (formerly the Ebola ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the Bring Out Your Dead threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.
Here’s the thing - as I pointed out in my post, and others point out - China is fudging the numbers.
What we have to ask is: are they more likely to fudge the numbers UP or DOWN? What has history taught us? DO they want to look “totally in control” or “teetering on the edge of chaos?”
“Check back in three weeks and tell me how many of the cohort of currently diagnosed people outside China are still alive, pretty please? “
You mean after I was told two weeks ago that THIS was going to be the situation today?
And in 3 weeks when it hasnt changed much, I will still be told that “it’s right around the corner”.
I’m pretty done with you since you are one of those annoying skeptics who never provide any numbers or references, just vagaries. You do this in the face of a post FULL of hard, sourced numbers and claim you know better.
Sorry, but I don’t debate with people like that. I usually just say, “Thanks, liberal, but I’m out.”
Here’s the thing - as I pointed out in my post, and others point out - China is fudging the numbers.
What we have to ask is: are they more likely to fudge the numbers UP or DOWN? What has history taught us? DO they want to look “totally in control” or “teetering on the edge of chaos?”
“But whatever. I think you are one of those guys who just wants to be contrarian on the internet for the purpose of puffing themselves up.”
You mean the kooks that think this is the black death II are the only ones that can converse on this?
Frankly neither the CCP or most people online are doing much more than presenting absolute narratives, and BS’ing everything to fit into it.
No different than the climate change loons.
So I dont take either side seriously. I look at the middle, and ask some logical questions.
If you see that as being contrarian “...for the purpose of puffing themselves up.” then by all means go back to your entertainment and whip yourselves into a frenzy until you’ve quit your job, sold your house, dumped all your cash, and are living in a bunker.
Until I see that, it’s just a bunch of people hedging their bets, which means I’m going to keep questioning.
Then after you've gotten that number, predict the numbers for the next three weeks based on that percentage. DO NOT share your numbers, just watch how close you are for a while.
My prediction from a couple days ago used a simpler algorithm, but my first number missed by only 42 souls, 2.8%
See if you can do better. I bet you can, if you are honest, even with dishonest numbers to start. If the ChiComs lie about the confirmed and deceased by the same percentages to save face, the death RATE will still be accurate.
******
Is the Coronavirus now unstoppable? New Data (video)
*****
“Im pretty done with you since you are one of those annoying skeptics who never provide any numbers or references, just vagaries. “
Skeptic = bad guy.
Well I am told that by the climate change activists too, soooooooooooooooooooooo I dont care.
“You do this in the face of a post FULL of hard, sourced numbers and claim you know better.”
What hard sourced? LOL! Because I’ve yet to hear any numbers that aren’t immediately dismissed, questioned or have people tacking on x100 to the end.
“Sorry, but I dont debate with people like that. I usually just say, Thanks, liberal, but Im out.”
“Dont question me you denier!!!!!!! Dont you know I’m a conservative!”?
Seriously?
“as I pointed out in my post, and others point out - China is fudging the numbers.”
No s*it? And your numbers are just estimations for anything that isnt in China since NO ONE has anything to go on. You arent the only one that follows this stuff.
https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/
“What we have to ask is: are they more likely to fudge the numbers UP or DOWN? What has history taught us? DO they want to look totally in control or teetering on the edge of chaos?”
The ignorant and the crooked fudge numbers. One does it to safe face and cover-up their screw-ups, the other does it the other way and says “I’m just trying to be safe than sorry”.
Except its not. Been out in the wild since late December.
Since we KNOW the numbers we’ve been given from China are bogus, the only numbers we can really assess are those from outside of China. So far, both the infection rate and the death rate appear to be quite low in comparison to those China-provided numbers.
Since we KNOW the numbers we’ve been given from China are bogus, the only numbers we can really assess are those from outside of China. So far, both the infection rate and the death rate appear to be quite low in comparison to those China-provided numbers.
Until I see that, its just a bunch of people hedging their bets, which means Im going to keep questioning.
Well stated...and I agree. Bravo sir.
Since we KNOW the numbers we’ve been given from China are bogus, the only numbers we can really assess are those from outside of China. So far, both the infection rate and the death rate appear to be quite low in comparison to those China-provided numbers. It’s going to have to really explode soon or I don’t see the outcome you are suggesting that everyone panic over.
Put it on the back deck in direct sunlight for afew hours. Thats all. Spray with lysol if you want overkill. Wash your hands and dont touch your face.
If the stuff hits your area remember the mailman could be infected. I plan on exposing everything to UV.
They just added 14,000 new cases two days ago.
Chart the cases in Wuhan, the slope of the curve is almost straight up.
You cannot look at this thing day to day and make judgements about speed.
On 1/22 there were about 650 cases. Today there are ten times that.
The cases outside of China are probably six weeks behind China. Six weeks ago I am not sure of the numbers—but it was close to double digits, maybe a little higher.
We are in the first inning of this event—maybe the second inning.
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