Posted on 02/10/2020 9:12:40 AM PST by NorseViking
Yes I saw how you did the math, it’s flawed. It’s simplistic and misleading.
How many medical experts are claiming the death rate will be 30 percent?
The 1917-18 flu epidemic is the worst on record. It claimed 50 million dead of 500 million infected — 10 percent, in a time when health care and sanitary practices were arguably much worse than even Wuhan, China.
I believe the “deaths” number, on the condition the data is reliable (not really, but it’s the best we have).
The “recovered” number is for those officially certified as “recovered” and that is most likely composed of the majority of people that were sick and required hospitalization. There are many thousands that never went to the hospital and recovered, because they were never stricken so severely that they required hospitalization. Or they were never counted because they shied away from the authorities, fearing being arrested and put into isolation. For various reasons they didn’t get a “recovered” certification.
And what about the other 40,000 known infected? They will either die or recover, but it’s way too early to come up with a number, and regardless the number is much larger than the low numbers you are using.
The fact that the Chinese are, for example, welding doors shut on apartment buildings for quarantine purposes suggests that the numbers of dead will be inflated in the quarantined areas, since the people trapped inside with the infected are much more likely to fall ill, and will be denied help. But from the Communist leadership’s view, better to have more die in isolation than to risk Shanghai and Beijing having similar outbreaks. After all, Chairman Mao starved millions of his own people to death in the Great Leap Forward. So you might say the Communists are allowing the per captita death rate to soar as an alternative to the certainty of a much larger uncontained pandemic.
I do not expect the final percentage to be at 20-30%. But at this point, the best data I’ve seen is close to 20%.
I do agree that the ChiCom data is bad. And that they are not to be trusted.
I think one of the medicines that was used to treat Ebola and related diseases has been shown to help in a few instances in this event.
Not really if you have a totalitarian leadership mindset. They are essentially setting up mini cruise ships, with more and more and likely all residents locked in such buildings to suffer the virus over time.
But they are buying time in trying to keep something of commercial viability alive, even though they may lose a million or so extra citizens, as that is the only hope they have of staying in power.
Yes, say 400 million end up infected (inside and outside China), a very bad case if not quite worst case. And if the rumors of 17% morbidity are correct, that is something like 68 million dead. Given that there is something like 270% the population from after WWII, that is not much worse than the numbers rumored to be lost over previous Communist China brutality.
Yes, but I think the final overall fatality rate outside of mainland China will be much lower than 20 or 30 percent. The Chinese are overwhelmed — rumors they don’t even have the manpower to collect the dead, let alone treat all of the sick. That, combined with the callous measures the Communists are imposing through draconian measures to limit the outbreak through the sacrifice of its isolated citizenry point to a bifurcated outcome.
I hope they can get this epidemic under control, and will fully cooperate with the rest of the world’s efforts to help. The Chinese people are not to blame for the poor outcome, it’s the Communist leadership that’s to blame, especially in consideration of their failure to take measures as soon as medical professionals were attempting to call attention to the emerging evidence of an epidemic.
How many medical experts are claiming the death rate will be 30 percent?
Francis Boyle is saying around 15% if memory serves. His interview on youtube was pretty harsh on the Chicoms & WHO
I don’t know, I was asking the same question in post #21 — I was saying I don’t think any medical experts are claiming it will turn out to be 30 percent.
Professor Boyle may be right about the virus being an offensive biological warfare agent, released from the level four lab in Wuhon. It wouldn’t surprise me too much to find that our government knows this and doesn’t want to make an open accusation, for various reasons.
If it were smallpox the accusations against China would be much more widespread and acute.
Totally agree.
A friend of mine, years ago, made me an honorary member of the kill a Commie a day club. (he worked on stuff that did just what the club name suggests.)
That was many years ago. Back then, I knew full well what Commies do. Some things don’t change.
Today they appear benevolent but the reality is still like all Totalitarians, Great Evil.
Yes. ChiCom leaders have that history.
Long ago I read Herbert Yardley’s “The Chinese Black Chamber” and it described how it was. Chang’s people were tough (it was war), but nothing like the insane Mao and the rest of his vermin. They don’t care how many people they kill trying to force their “plans” to work.
Long ago again, I read Theodore White’s “In search of history”. He was there in China writing about them before and during WWII. A portion of the book described him riding on horseback through Hunan province, and the starving tried to take him from his horse so they could eat it. The starvation was so bad that when the Japanese took over Hunan, the people living there welcomed them. Makes no difference who starves you.
The Chinese People are not our enemy. The ChiCom Government and our own equivalent lefties in the USA are enemies of all free men.
Yes, but too many Chinese, here and in China, support their government. (Understandable, given how quickly our bought-off pols and complacent voters helped them zoom from starvation to luxury.)
This article gives numbers. 812 dead, 2,651 recovered. Total where the disease has run its course: 812 + 2651 = 3463. The deaths are 23% of the total.
Current total reported:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
1,527 dead
8,571 recovered
67,097 total confirmed cases
1527 + 8571 = 10098
1527/10098 = ~ 15.1%
Hubei province is much worse.
1457 + 4817 = 6274
1457/6274 = ~ 23.2%
Currently there have been 70 deaths outside of Hubei Province.
So the place where the outbreak took place is a disaster. Many say because of actions of the Government.
The graph at the Johns Hopkins link show a peak and a slight drop recently. This is a good sign.
The number of recovered cases in countries outside China appear to be increasing.
Can we rely on the ChiCom numbers? Probably not, but I do trust Johns Hopkins as far as that goes.
Not only because they have every incentive to falsify numbers, and they have a long history of doing so, but because the whole system is unreliable, with strong incentives to tell the people above you what they want to hear.
Agree.
Totalitarianism in all forms is Evil.
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