Posted on 01/29/2020 6:53:52 AM PST by Enlightened1
From what I gather the current R0 factor of caronavirus is 2.5 (the ave. number of people an infected person will infect). In the US typically the flu’s R0 is 1.5. My question is are the caronavirus computations based solely on a densely packed Chinese city and the US figures on wide open America? If so, caronavirus is no more contagious than this year’s flu.
US caronavirus nightmare scenario:
45 million Americans infected
20 million Americans go to the doctor
1 million Americans are admitted to hospitals
61,000 Americans die!
That’s not a caronavirus scenario, that was the US 2018 flu season.
HEY pawns of your CORRUPT POWER CENTER. Who let the germs out?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qkuu0Lwb5EM
Condolences and good luck.
Thought from the headline they were selling the virus.
It avoids a major sell off that destroys the economy.
It doesn’t do anything but make a short term stopgap. They can’t keep it closed forever because trade has to happen or the economy will crash even harder.
Either they know/hope that a week away they will have a better news cycle or they are panicking and this is the Communists imitating the ostrich bury their heads in the sand.
When a market is plunging due to a herd instinct that may not make sense, the first instinct of the socialist is to shutdown the market, rather than deal with the cause of the fear and let traders learn the hard way to avoid panic sell-offs.
Almost half of the RNA in 2019-nCoV has NO genetic linkage to any other corona virus. This includes the middle region where half of the genomic spike encoding a multifunction protein responsible for virus entry into host cells has no linkage to any other corona virus.
Unlike other corona viruses that infect the mucosal membranes of the nasal passages, 2019-nCoV infects the simple squamous epithelium in the lungs.
The data suggest that 2019-nCoV is a manmade combination of a corona virus from bats (which causes cold and flu symptoms) with a blood borne pneumonia virus from a mammal other than humans (which causes the bloody pneumonia that kills the host). The corona virus provides the pathway for the lethal pneumonia virus to enter a human host.
Sources:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.920249v1
Full-genome evolutionary analysis of the novel corona virus (2019-nCoV) rejects the hypothesis of emergence as a result of a recent recombination event
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding Twitter Account
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1221997385146040321?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Good site to keep up on numbers:
Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Global Cases (by Johns Hopkins CSSE)
As of Jan 28, 2020 11 pm EST
Total Confirmed
6,057
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
I keep hearing from a handful of FR experts that it’s really not a big deal, no more lethal than the ordinary flu.
Ask the experts how many common cold, flu, and other corona viruses encapsulate as 2019-nCoV?
WIth corona's current *admitted* numbers so far. 45 million Americans infected
20 million Americans go to the doctor
9 million Americans go to the hospital
900,000 Americans die.
It's those last two rows which tank the entire US economy.
those are yesterdays numbers
“Ask the experts how many common cold, flu, and other corona viruses encapsulate as 2019-nCoV?”
I’ve tried, as well as pointing out China’s unprecedented reaction to this specific outbreak. It seems they’re immune to logic.
They can work around it but its not going to be easy to supplant it.
Geographically Wuhan, at the confluence of the Yangtze and Han Rivers, is like the Cairo, Illinois, of China. Cairo is at the confluence of the the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. Imagine shippers, and crews, concerned (rightly, or not) about having to pass through a quarantine zone to enter, or exit, the Ohio, or to ascend, or descend, the Mississippi, past its confluence with the Ohio.
More importantly, will the Dragon House still deliver? I've got a hankering for won ton soup and some egg rolls.
Im not buying your projections. I’ve been running in the panic stampede for a week now and I have to ask myself why? This isn’t an Ebola epidemic spread like the common cold. This is a rather badass flu variant being spread like the flu.
Ask yourself this, Einstein.
When was the last time you saw virtually every country in the world institute contract tracing for people who flew with the flu?
When was the last time you saw, people at the very tippy top of the CDC, appearing at a national news conference in DC to announce steps being taken to deal with a flu, with less than 5 cases in the US?
When was the last time you had multiple molecular biologists say “this cannot have mutated naturally” and the part of the genome, which is totally different from any related viruses, is a protein spike which allows the virus to attack recpetors on cells deep in the lungs?
Thanks for the compliment, but I’m not nearly in Einstein’s league. Until we see the tens of thousands in Chinese mass graves or the hundreds of thousands of dead Americans we’ve both got opinions along with something else. The only realistic thing a smart American can do is to tweak his preparedness plans to accommodate a quarantine and go about his business. Going berserk and screaming the sky is falling, even if it is, doesn’t change one damn thing.
I’m one of those people who is always skeptical about these outbreak warnings and wonder if they are ever reported in context. Is this virus really THAT bad to send the market down 400 points yesterday? These outbreaks always start in China and always fizzle out by the time they hit North America.
The media just loves these things. Remember H1N1. My bother begged my wife to inoculate the girls and was crying about it, but my wife wisely refused. The media likes to make hay and governments naturally err to the side of paranoia, because who wants to be the person that failed to warn us?
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