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No Matter What Trump Does, Those Jobs Aren't Coming Back from China
RCM ^ | 09/03/2019 | Allan Golombek

Posted on 09/03/2019 9:24:11 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

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To: UCANSEE2

“Someone has to build the robots and program the software. Based on the performance and durability of modern day electronics, the robots will have to be upgraded/replaced once a year. The software will undergo neverending revisions. Takes people to do that.”

A handful of jobs at most.

Robots will build the robots.

A friend works in food automation. Him and 6 other guys fix all the machines at a large food prep plant over 3 shifts.

30% 0f the population is untrainable.

Wait in 10 years or less when 3.5 million long haul truckers lose their jobs to self driving trucks.


41 posted on 09/03/2019 10:18:57 AM PDT by setter
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To: amorphous
Fewer are willing to do physical work,

Oh God you are another "jobs Americans won't do" plutocrat!!! LOL!

42 posted on 09/03/2019 10:21:06 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: setter

“A friend works in food automation. Him and 6 other guys fix all the machines at a large food prep plant over 3 shifts.”

I want to add he has worked there since 1990. They had 600 employees now down to 90-all due to automation. They are producing triple the amount of product.

When the robots take over all the manufacturing jobs are gonna be lost.

I’ve read AI and robots are going to wipe out 60-70% of jobs in 15-20 years

Don’t laugh but I predict a day when governments the world over will ban labor saving products so they can keep the population working. That or major population control.


43 posted on 09/03/2019 10:26:40 AM PDT by setter
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To: central_va
No, I'm a realist who's actually knowledgeable of the skills and work ethic of today's workforce and the tort issues with manufacturing products in the U.S.

But keep your head in the sand and maybe the economic storm that's coming will miss us.

44 posted on 09/03/2019 10:30:36 AM PDT by amorphous
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To: SeekAndFind

“President Trump and other mercantilists are hoping that his tariffs will drive U.S companies out of China, perhaps even back to the United States... It’s not likely to happen.”

The article goes on to say:

“U.S companies are already leaving China”

and:

“The United States will soon need a half-million more skilled workers.”

This fruitcake lays out all his theories about why what the data is showing, will not happen.

US manufacturing employment has been growing faster than the general economy since President Trump was inaugurated. There is a stampede of manufacturers out of China.

The plan is not to get low wage jobs making sneakers by hand.

The plan is to pull our supply chain out of China, so we don’t depend on them, and don’t fund their hostile capability. The plan is to make the USA a favorable place to develop NEW manufacturing operations going forward.

Most of the low wage crap manufacturing will move to other Asian countries in the near term, increasingly to Latin American over the mid term, and eventually to the USA (in highly automated processes) over the long term.

Companies are not closing factories in China and opening a direct replacement making the exact same thing in the USA. But manufacturing in general has been growing and gradually diversifying here, and declining in China.


45 posted on 09/03/2019 10:32:29 AM PDT by BeauBo
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To: dfwgator

Sadly, in many cases, the question is more like, “ Do we want to CONTINUE to be dependent upon the Chinese” , because we are pretty much dependent for some things at this point even if we don’t realize it just yet


46 posted on 09/03/2019 10:36:28 AM PDT by rdcbn ( Referentia)
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To: spokeshave
That means that China will no longer have "developing nation" status for low cost postage to USA.

Yes, very important. The U.S. has been subsidizing shipping from China for decades.

It is cheaper to ship from China to the U.S.A. than within the U.S.A.

47 posted on 09/03/2019 10:37:08 AM PDT by marktwain (President Trump and his supporters are the Resistance. His opponents are the Reactionaries.)
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To: BeauBo

The issue is not as much bringing jobs back from China, it’s about establishing emerging jobs and manufacturing technology here in the US and ensuring that the capitol investment for new manufacturing systems take place here in the US


48 posted on 09/03/2019 10:39:20 AM PDT by rdcbn ( Referentia)
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To: central_va

“Oh God you are another “jobs Americans won’t do” plutocrat!!! LOL!”

Our farm is surrounded on three sides by Christmas tree farms. The owners had ads for $15 hr (50-60 hr weeks) for tree trimmers for summer jobs. Always hired local HS boys.. My brother worked there for two summers.

It is brutal work 90+ degree weather, bees, snakes, poison ivy and spiders and multi flora rose.

Could not find student workers over last 5 years

Ended up sub contracting to a group of Hispanics to get the job done.

$15 hr for a summer job and no takers.


49 posted on 09/03/2019 10:41:05 AM PDT by setter
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To: setter

Unfortunately there is a stigma associated with manual labor, because of the illegals.

It’s going to take some time to undo that.

Getting rid of welfare, for able-bodied people would be a good first step.


50 posted on 09/03/2019 10:44:55 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: setter
The level of economic activity required to achieve the level of automation you foresee is going to require a new industrial revolution which will keep employment full for a generation, at least.

Do have some concerns for the segment of the population a standard deviation or so to left of mean on the bell curve, but consider this - heard serious concerns about computer tech leaving the unwashed masses in the lurch back in the day and predicted advances in computational power and interface design would solve that issue.

The new iPhone has many times the computational horsepower of the Cray supercomputer of the 1980s and it is routinely used by 12 year old girls in the ghetto who can barely read or write.

51 posted on 09/03/2019 10:52:55 AM PDT by rdcbn ( Referentia)
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To: cuban leaf

“it will be done mostly by robots, so it won’t really be much of a jobs issue.”

Per unit of output, the number of jobs will plummet. But despite the higher productivity, the USA can get a bigger slice of those jobs that remain - raising domestic corporate profits and tax revenue.

When the jobs are here, the supply chain grows around them, bringing more varied jobs. The wealth from those workers, pays in turn for a richer support chain of jobs in the community - restaurants, dry cleaners, entertainment, etc.

Just like we don’t need big typing pools to get documents created anymore, factories will become less and less large groups of people - but every one of those jobs will produce greater value to the economy.


52 posted on 09/03/2019 11:08:30 AM PDT by BeauBo
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To: dfwgator; setter
Unfortunately there is a stigma associated with manual labor...

More like an aversion.

The height of stupidity are those who pay (Btw, banks skim 26% interest off their credit card, gov takes a 25% income tax cut, sales tax another 10%) someone to do their manual work for them (maintenance, daycare, repairs, yard work, cleaning, etc.) while heading to the gym (more income taxes, cc charges, sales taxes, transportation, and workout clothing costs) to get a workout!

But maybe by staying "active", because they don't get enough physical activity, they're avoiding future medical costs, a whole other scam.

53 posted on 09/03/2019 11:09:40 AM PDT by amorphous
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To: HamiltonJay
So productivity is generally higher in the US

Glad you brought that up. US workers are among the most productive in the world. Usually top five, and in reality, the most productive of large countries. The few countries that rank above the US have populations smaller than our cities.

54 posted on 09/03/2019 11:16:12 AM PDT by OA5599
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To: rightwingcrazy

Don’t worry—when the war with China starts all the things we think we need from China will not be availble. I am talking WW III —No ships from China (They will be torpedoed), Internet? China will crash it day one of fighting. Like Poison Gas in WW II, Atomic weapons will not be used. It will be grunts fighting on far away battlefields. The Goal will be who will rule the world—USA and allies vs. Red China and her allies. I foresee a naval war in the Pacific. Carriers will be sunk—A draft will take men and women. Only way to avoid the draft will be for women to have babies sparking a mini-baby boom. I can not see who will win this one.


55 posted on 09/03/2019 11:19:54 AM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll Onward! Ride to the sound ovil.f the guns!)
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To: painter

Seek and Find is always taking the same posture from the Dark Side defeatist we are all gonna die mode

I usually avoid any thread with that name as the originator as they are always the same and invariably draw trolls who pile on


56 posted on 09/03/2019 11:28:21 AM PDT by 100American (Knowledge is knowing how, Wisdom is knowing when)
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To: central_va
As it stands now your car is 90% built by robots. All the more reason to on shore the factories here and not Mexico and not Gookla

The Japanese and Koreans seem to get this. They are building more Toyotas and Hyundais here now than in Korea or Japan. Yes it's the shipping cost.


57 posted on 09/03/2019 11:32:13 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog (Patrick Henry would have been an anti-vaxxer.)
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To: marktwain
It is cheaper to ship from China to the U.S.A. than within the U.S.A.

I bought a transistor radio on Amazon and was amazed when it arrived at my door in a brown envelope with Chinese postage stamps.


58 posted on 09/03/2019 11:33:55 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog (Patrick Henry would have been an anti-vaxxer.)
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To: setter
$15 hr for a summer job and no takers.

LOL! $15.hr and he hasn't adjusted wages for inflation? Pay more and quit hiring illegals. If you do that then you are common criminal.

59 posted on 09/03/2019 11:48:49 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: amorphous

So when an asshole gives up on America should I stand by and say nothing? One day you anti Americans are going to get your comeupance.


60 posted on 09/03/2019 11:51:35 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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