High tomorrow predicted at -16.
I wouldn't want to be riding around in one of those blue and white go-karts tomorrow.
These temps make the inside of my freezer look comfortable. Gezzz.
Hmmm. Sorry to hear that. 81 degrees here today. 👍
My son in law is a route carrier in the small town we live in. Basically delivery will be limited to curb boxes and muktifamiky, so the carrier will mostly stay in the vehicle. Very cold in northwest Illinois for the next 36 hours.
It is inspiring to read the dismissive comments on this thread. Sounds like the old people I heard in my youth talk about their good old days, when they walked six miles to school in driving snow and 20 below, uphill each way.
NWS Forecast Discussion (current):
805
FXUS63 KLOT 301135
AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
535 AM CST Wed Jan 30 2019
.SHORT TERM...
325 AM CST
Through Thursday Night...
About as frigid and dangerous of wind chills as can be
experienced in northern Illinois and northwest Indiana early this
morning with values of -35 to -50 as of 230 a.m., and will move
another one or two steps down that ladder through mid-morning. The
character and most of the forecast values of the bitter cold
forecast through Thursday morning remain the same. For Thursday
mid-late afternoon into evening, did boost snow chances and
amounts some, as a problematic light to moderate snow event in
cold temperatures overlapping a commute period looks more likely.
The lobe of polar air is seen on satellite rotating through the
Great Lakes early this morning, with the 00Z sounding last evening
from GRB having a near record low 500mb height for their location
of 493 dm. The true Arctic front of this system has lived up to
its name, with west-northwest winds gusting 25 to 35 mph early
this morning having surged continental polar air in. Temperatures
continue to tumble into the -20s and should be for most is not
the entire area by 9 a.m. as the peak cold pocket at 925mb of -33C
rotates overhead. The cold advection will likely cause the
minimum not to be reached until mid-morning. It truly is
impressive to have these temperatures with these winds. The winds
will ease slightly in the afternoon allowing for the slightest of
rebounds in daytime “highs” with readings remaining in the
negative double digits likely areawide. Rockford is likely to
break their all time calendar day coldest high, while Chicago will
just miss it due to being one degree higher (-10) at midnight.
Wind chills area wide will be -45 to -55 this morning, maybe a tad
colder in spots. With about cold as can be today, the message is
to avoid outdoors if one can and if not, this is the day to dress
as absolutely warm as possible.
The winds have been creating blowing and drifting snow in open
areas per reports and this is going to continue to be a problem
this morning. Will continue to mention in Wind Chill headline as
well as separate SPS and messaging. Winds will gradually ease this
afternoon. Otherwise, as common in these Arctic air masses, this
morning looks to have some very thin stratocumulus streamers that
could result in flurries. The combination of some blowing and
suspended snow crystals and/or flurries could result in some nice
sun dogs too!
The 1035 mb high pressure will settle in to northwest and central
Illinois early this evening and inch its way eastward into
overnight. With high confidence in a clear sky, all ingredients in
place for an extremely and likely record cold temperature night.
Continue forecast lows in the -20s and -30s, with the coldest
values in north central Illinois and exposed, favored areas.
Rockford will likely drop to colder than what they are this
morning, and so confidence in a record all-time low is increasing
there. Chicago looks to be very close to reaching their record and
have undercut guidance slightly with a low right at all-time
record level.
A key with Thursday morning is that it will be extremely cold,
but with the high spreading over winds are to ease, especially in
north central Illinois. So as temperatures start to moderate mid-
late morning, true wind chill warning criteria of -30 will likely
no longer be reached in north central Illinois, however the actual
temperatures will be as cold as they can be to start the day. So
feel the best message is to leave the warning end time as is, as
we are talking only a difference of 2-3 hours. Chicago area looks
good to still be at -30 wind chills through the morning.
Attention then turns to snow later Thursday. The baroclinic zone
on the western side of the longwave trough will start to see
increasing warm advection along it as a mid-level wave moves
southeastward along it. While there will be low-level dry air and
a light southeast wind underneath this, saturation along this
boundary would be right in the dendritic growth zone and over a
large depth. So feel that as isentropic ascent and f-gen
strengthen along the boundary that snow should be able to fairly
easily begin in the afternoon. This is most favored over north
central Illinois and then shifts eastward into early evening.
High ratios will be supported and with 2.5 g/kg of moisture
forecast in the lifting layers, feel a 1 to 4 inch event can be
realized. There`s just uncertainty on how quickly that baroclinic
zone will shift east in the evening and whether a portion or all
of the Chicago metro area commute will be impacted. With the cold
surface temperatures around zero, there will be travel impacts
where snow can materialize.
As an aside, with flurries at ORD very early this morning, that
means 14 straight days with at least some snow observed in Chicago,
so Thursday looks to be 15.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
419 AM CST
Friday through Tuesday...
Friday will be a transitional day as the center of the deep upper
low shifts northeast to Newfoundland and general upper ridging
builds across the wrn/cntrl CONUS. The sfc arctic high will shift
to the Mid-atlantic region and another high builds across the
region, with any residual snow ending by the beginning of the period.
After a cold start to the day, expect that temperatures should begin
an upward trend as sky cover diminishes through the day and heights
increase aloft. Highs Friday should range from the upper teens west
of the Fox Valley and north of I-80, where the snowpack will be
thickest to the upper 20s across the far southern portions of the
CWA. With increasing southerly winds overnight and some partial
cloud cover, do not expect excessive radiative cooling. Lows Friday
night into Saturday morning should range from the upper single
digits over the rockford area to the upper teens over the far south.
Going into the weekend, there are still some concerns for another
round of a wintry mix of pcpn. Through the day on Saturday, the
southerly flow should help continue the general warming trend, but
there is concern that the models are trying to raise temperatures
too high too quickly, considering the ongoing extreme cold and dense
snow pack. So, have tempered the warming trend below the current
model guidance by at least a few degrees. The latest model RH time
sections suggest a return flow of, initially, shallow moisture and
modest warm advection/isentropic lift. There may be enough low
level forcing to generate some light pcpn. The primary concern will
be p-type. With the saturated layer relatively shallow, much of the
pcpn should be drizzle with sfc and ground temperatures the
determining factor in how much of the pcpn will be freezing drizzle
vs liquid drizzle for the daytime hours. Expect that ground and
road sfc temperatures should lag behind air temperatures, so at
least some freezing drizzle will be possible as a warm front
associated with the return flow warm advection lifts north across
the area. The increasing low level moisture will also pose a threat
for dense fog formation as the warmer/moister air overspreads the
snow pack.
Light precip should continue on Sunday as isentropic lift continues,
with 850 mb flow becoming more swly and increasing to 35-40 kt and
more direct flow from the Gulf of Mexico sets up. precipitation
should become more widespread Sunday night into Monday as a southern
stream short wave lifts across the region. By this point,
temperatures should reach into the 40s on Sunday. The far nwrn
portions of the CWA should still remain the cold spot, but by
Monday, temperatures over the sern portions of the CWA could reach
or exceed 50 F.
For the latter portions of the long term forecast period, the
guidance is suggesting that another arctic high should build in
across the area following the passage of the southern stream system,
with at least a 20 degree drop in temperatures from Monday to
Wednesday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
328 AM CST
Here are the record lows and record coldest highs for this week`s
cold spell...
Wed Jan 30 Thu Jan 31
Chicago
Record Low -15 (1966)* -12 (1985)
Record Low Max 3 (1966) 1 (1971)
Rockford
Record Low -19 (1966)* -18 (1966)
Record Low Max -3 (1951) -3 (1996)
Chicago
All Time Record Low: -27 (Jan 20, 1985)
All Time Record Low Max: -11 (Jan 18, 1994 & Dec 24, 1983)
Rockford
All Time Record Low: -27 (Jan 10, 1982)
All Time Record Low Max: -14 (Jan 18, 1994 & Jan 6, 1912)
* = Broken already today
&&
Fun stuff.
Schools closed as far south as Paducah, KY.
Some will bitch but it makes sense - no sane person would be on a route - especially a walking route - in such conditions.